Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A. (NYSE:BBVA) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

So that repatriation happens. If you don’t repatriate by the way, the solo, BBVA SA profits and capital ratios would be in such a way that you might not be seeing the value in the BBVA SA. You also have all the details of BBVA SA there. So we don’t see any risk emerging from the discussion that you have. More importantly, unlike many other of our competitors in Europe, we are not only focusing on profits. We are also focusing every single quarter. It’s either the second page or the third page, I don’t know. But every single quarter, we are putting always the tangible book value per share growth. Tangible book value per share growth, obviously incorporates every single currency risk that you have because your capital will be affected from any change in the currencies and the tangible book value will be affected.

And you would then have a lower figure. So all of that is already incorporated into our management discipline. And again, you can see the numbers in the documents that we publish every quarter. On the digital euro, I don’t know, I mean, Andrea, maybe now we should have a separate call and we can discuss maybe long on this because we do have a clear perspective that what ECB is trying to achieve, which is around payments, if you look into the objective statement of why digital euro is being pursued, all of those objectives can be achieved by focusing on integrating the payment systems of the different geographies that we have in Europe into one. It’s a payment-focused objective. But for a payment-focused objective, we are creating much different, and in our view, not needed scheme.

We have been saying this to ECB very clearly, but it’s a process. I mean, it’s still – as you know, the second phase of this has started. So we will see how it goes, but it’s another 2, 3 years on the details of the scheme to come out. We will continue to dialogue. So until we have more clarity on how it will be implied, how it will be implemented. I wouldn’t see major risks yet. But given the thresholds that they put into the scheme and so on already some of those risks are being capped, but it’s a long process, and it’s too early to answer this question, Andrea.

Patricia Bueno: Thank you, Andrea. Next question, please.

Operator: The next question comes from the line of Carlos Cobo from Societe Generale. Please go ahead. Your line is now open.

Carlos Cobo: Hi. Thanks for taking our questions. The main one would be on Mexico under risk appetite. I was wondering if you have been taking a little bit that appetite to grow in consumer on the back of the increasing rates and how it’s expected to affect the cost of risk or basically, the message you are conveying today is that the risk return remains very, very attractive in Mexico despite higher rates and higher provisions. And at the same time, in line with that, cost of risk in corporate looks abnormally low, especially on the back of the rate hikes. I was wondering if you could elaborate on that. Why is it? Do you think is it sustainable, or when we look into 2024, we are going to have higher cost of risk in consumer as well as corporates.

Second, when you said that you have returned to the mortgage segment in Spain, would it be possible to discuss a little bit your offer? Is it fixed rate loans that you are growing in, or are you seeing a slightly different product, are it becoming more common in Spain with mixed mortgages, like 3 years, 5 years fixed tranches and then floating? I would like to know what’s the pricing dynamics and why you have been able to grow market share where other peers are struggling. So, what is kind of the combination that is working for you? And lastly, sorry, one final question on trading. Could you elaborate a little bit on that line because it’s probably the most volatile and where we have less visibility, are you positive for trading next year?

And what was the driver of the trading increase this quarter, this is recurring or driven by any one-off? Thank you.

Onur Genc: Luisa, do you want to take the trading or your matter and your specialty? On cost of risk, Carlos, very good question. The wholesale has been behaving really well. But also retail is behaving very well. And I will repeat this once again. We have guided you for Mexico for cost of risk this year to be less than 300. We are still maintaining that guidance. But you are right, in – especially in wholesale, the numbers are really positive. And why is that, because Mexico as a country is doing really well. I mean you might have – you might remember this, but we upgraded, the growth rate, GDP growth rate of Mexico twice this year. The expectation at the moment is 3.2%. It used to be one point something, then it was 2.4%, now 3.2%.

What we are seeing in Mexico is really beautiful in multiple senses. Number one, the key problem that we have seen for many years in Mexico has been the lack of investments. And this is the first time after many years that we are seeing a lot of investments flowing into Mexico. The overall growth rate of the investment number is around 9%. Within that, for example, machinery and equipment, which is long-term investment in nature areas, it’s around 19% growth. The FTI in Mexico is up 40% in the first six months of this year. We are seeing a lot of topics related to near-shoring and so on really becoming a reality. I am not sure that you follow it, but the research keeps publishing our – the signals of near-shoring on what’s happening, especially these industrial complexes and the renting of places in these industrial complexes and so on.

It’s really, really positive. And given this, after so many years, after decades actually, Mexico has become the number one exporter to U.S., passing Canada, passing China. So, there are some positive, very positive dynamics happening in Mexico in our view. And as a result, by the way, this is corporate-related EBIT, so the companies are doing well in general. But also as directly correlated to this, obviously, the labor markets are very strong. I mean the unemployment rate, obviously, there is some informality. But even if you isolate for that impact, apples-to-apples, the latest unemployment is 2.9%, the lowest in many, many, many years. Given the situation, so there might – it might be too low and there might be some adjustment given the rates, there might be.

But overall, the macro situation is clearly helping the cost of risk figures in Mexico in our view. You asked a very specific question on mortgage. If I am not mistaken, 85% of our new production in Spain, mortgages is fixed rate. As others, we also do have a mixed product, but it’s not big in the composition. Again, 85% is a fixed rate product that we commercialize. On the trading, Luisa?