Ball Corporation (NYSE:BALL) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

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Daniel Fisher: Yeah. Well, I mean, flattish. That’s not the narrowest range we’ve ever given, but I appreciate the question. I would say optimism to tighten the range in North America is that we plan on a much more conservative environment. And one thing that I think is important to underpin this business and this industry in particular. We’re generally the first to go into the recession and we’re generally the first to come out. And what we need is to see what happened over the last four to six weeks was the elasticity curve on volume and price for our customers has been broken. And now you’re seeing volume come off. That means you have to return to some level of promotional activity, that’s good for the can. So, for North America, in particular, we’ve got a big business where with all of the customers.

It gives us some foothold in understanding the market dynamics. The contracts are secured. We know what we have heading into the year. Could it be up a little, down a little, yes. That’s not going to have an impact on whether or not we can deliver our 10% to 15% EPS target.

Scott Morrison: I would also say, I mean, it’s — it’s been more volatile in the last few years, no doubt. Historically, North America has been more predictable. South America has always had a wider range just because volumes can move around a lot. Those economies are more volatile. And so, you could see much — you could see outpace growth at times. And you could see bigger declines at times. So, South America has just always been a more volatile region. And despite to Dan’s comments, I mean, you would think with 100% inflation in Argentina that would be a big negative for cans, but cans grew double digits last year. So, it’s a little tougher to predict in a place like that.

Angel Castillo: That’s very helpful. And if I may just kind of a quick little follow-up on that. I think one of the areas that historically in recession has helped is the customer pays back maybe how much they’re spending on-prem, some of the off-prem starts to revise for cans. And have we seen some of that already? Or is that still a potential upside as we think about the near-term and the customer?

Daniel Fisher: Yeah. I haven’t — we haven’t seen that particularly. But you’re exactly right. Those are the early signs and signals that were — that’s when you know you’re on the uplift coming out. And we’ve seen the first stages of promotional activity starting. We haven’t seen them steering on-prem versus off-prem. But that usually is the next lever to pull. You’re exactly right.

Angel Castillo: Thank you so much.

Operator: Next question from the line of Mike Roxland with Truist. Please go ahead.

Mike Roxland: Thanks Dan and Scott. Thanks for taking my questions.

Daniel Fisher: Sure, Mike.

Mike Roxland: Just one quick follow-up on — Dan mentioned the weakness in beer. And obviously, you experienced it firsthand. You also saw that in the Nielsen data with beer volumes being very challenged late last year. How are you thinking about your exposure to beer at this juncture? Is it still a core end market? And given what’s occurred in beer, are there any opportunities for you to diversify your mix?

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