Ball Corporation (NYSE:BALL) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

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Daniel Fisher: Yeah. I will point you to the fact that the real cost that our customers have relative to aluminum cans has as much to do with our hedge positions. And in the second half of the year, cans will be the lowest cost substrate with the greatest profit pool, and that will give ample reason for our customers to push aluminum packaging at that point. You’re right, the World Cup relative to the fourth quarter. We did see an uptick, but we didn’t see the uptick that we anticipated. We knew that early in the quarter and we were reacting to that throughout the quarter. And we’ve got — to your point, you got Carnival, you’ve got another a couple of things. You don’t have a COVID environment like you did last year. So, there’s optimism. It started off less favorable than we anticipated in South America, but it’s only one month in, and I would — and we’re still bullish on things getting better in the back half of the year.

Scott Morrison: I would just add on South America. In the first quarter last year, we will lap the customer breach that we had. So, that will we won’t have that volume as we look forward.

Christopher Parkinson: Thank you so much.

Daniel Fisher: Thank you.

Scott Morrison: Thank you.

Operator: Next question from the line of Arun Viswanathan with RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Arun Viswanathan: Great. Thanks for taking my questions. Good morning.

Daniel Fisher: Sure. Good morning.

Arun Viswanathan: Obviously, we’ve seen the destocking and some of the impact on the consumer from the inflation. And you mentioned that maybe that’s turning a little bit now with the deflation and customers of yours potentially in a position to promote the product. So, could you describe a little bit more what you’re seeing on that front? And if you are seeing that — do you expect — what’s kind of your growth and volume outlook for NA, North America this year, taking into account some of the closures you had last year as well. Thanks.

Daniel Fisher: Yeah. As we sit here today, I’m encouraged by what we’re seeing, and I’m not willing to come off of — is certainly in the year that we’re planning for flat. We’re planning our earnings lift in our 10% to 15% EPS growth, up a flat North America until we’re more convinced that the behaviors of the customers will continue to lean into promotion throughout the year. That’s where we’re landing right now.

Arun Viswanathan: Okay. Maybe I can ask the question a little differently. If you think about the $400 million or so that you delivered in Q4 EBITDA, maybe there’s a little bit of seasonality improvement in Q1 2023. Q4 2023, I imagine, could look like Q1 and then Q2 and Q3 would be up seasonally better. But still, that would fall short of $2 billion of EBITDA. Is that right? I mean, what are some of the levers you guys can pull to maybe get back to that level? Or is that maybe more like a 2024 and 2025 kind of range that we should be thinking about?

Scott Morrison: Right. I think in the first quarter — remember, a year ago in the first quarter, things were pretty good. Our volumes were up. It looks strong. We’re not going to have that kind of…

Daniel Fisher: And then we had Russia.

Scott Morrison: And we had Russia. I mean — but in North America, the volumes were good. So, we won’t have — we’re going to have pretty tough comps in the first quarter. I think as we look forward then in the remaining quarters, we should see nice improvement year-over-year in each of the quarters in North America as we look forward.

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