So the combination of that, plus previously disclosed comments in and around hedge positions, all of that is playing out as we would hope. The only thing in South America obviously is the question mark in and around Argentina, but Brazil is stronger and we still believe that what we’ve contemplated for the back half of the year is going to manifest. In North America, both Scott and I have been very public with our comments on what we were seeing throughout the second quarter relative to the mass beer dynamic. And they have been confirmed by our customers. One is our beer customers are always running full out in the second quarter and even most of the third quarter. So if there’s a mixed shift that’s taking place, it’s going to come from working capital or filled goods.
So the scanner data won’t be necessarily a one-to-one reflection of what we’re experiencing. We believe that there will be resets at retailers. Some of the customers that have opportunities to step into elevated positions or more velocity on shelves or a bigger shelf space on shelves, they’re gearing up for that. You won’t really see that until the fourth quarter is how we’re contemplating in our numbers. And in terms of promotion, I think the way you characterized, it is correct. There has been promotion that keep in mind. The promotions coming off in many instances, staggering price increases over the last two years. So, it’s not about promotion, as much as that is the intentionality of volume momentum. What we’ve seen in the CSD category is we have seen private label gain share.
And that is something new relative to what we’ve seen the last couple years. That is generally a catalyst to drive for more volume and volume momentum. And we’ve always thought that given Q4 comps for certain of our customers, they will be more inclined to push volume. In the fourth quarter, conversations with those customers would signal that they’re thinking about it similarly. But until it happens and until they find the right price elasticity and volume momentum trigger, I think they’re doing a lot of activity. I see the same data. It’s not having the intended results of driving volume. I think it means that they will need to be more aggressive, and I know that they don’t like to be losing share to private label. So that’s a lot there, but that’s how we’re viewing it, and that’s how we’ve modeled it.
We don’t expect to see a great deal of uplift in Q3 versus previous, from a sequential standpoint, Q2, with the exception of we believe, mass beer within our portfolio will continue to be negative. Europe continues to grow. Slight growth in Q2. We had a very good second quarter last year. I’m commenting, excluding Russia. We will continue to grow as our plant system ramps up. The new capacity was needed for us to really step into growth in the mid-single digits, but everything is still in line and alignment with us delivering against that over the back half of the year.
George Staphos: Thank you, Dan.
Dan Fisher: Thank you.
Operator: Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Anthony Pettinari with Citi. Please go ahead. Your line is now open.
Bryan Burgmeier: Hi, this is actually Bryan Burgmeier on for Anthony. Thanks for your question. Dan, Scott, you’ve been asked about the possibility of selling or spinning aerospace for many, many years. So, why now for the strategic review? Did something change for Ball for the aerospace business? Is it about capital allocation or returns? Just any detail you can add there and maybe why this is happening now?
Dan Fisher: Yes, why now is, if you look back five years ago versus today, the business is much bigger, much healthier, much more profitable, and it could fundamentally stand on its own. Those are the key cruxes for why you could potentially do something else with this business. It’s really a manifestation of that business has performed tremendously and gotten to a point where it’s an incredibly valuable asset. We believe that was the case. And so, we ran a process to validate that. Early indications are it is a valuable business. If and when I’ve got more to talk about, I’ll let you know. It’s really nothing about capital allocation and return threshold. It is just that it’s a valuable asset. It’s increasingly so. And we always need to look at our shareholder value equation and make sure that that asset is sitting in the right spot for the long-term generation.
