Ball Corporation (NYSE:BALL) Q1 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Mike Roxland: … solid quarter given the results there. Just some quick ones for me. Just in terms of the guide the EBITDA for North America and particularly exports in 2Q, what type of volume growth is that embedded? Is that — does that embed a slightly down you expect for the year, and if so, could there be upside to the forecast if you do have to start to see some promotional activity kicking off?

Dan Fisher: Yeah. You were a bit choppy there. But I think the question is kind of what’s the underlying demand profile or assumption built into our current North America projection. And you are correct, we believe it will be slightly down at this point as we look out over the course and the balance of the year, given really very little insight into the actual decision for process related to pricing and volume. It’s a volume business at the end of the day and we are going to need some. But the teams — we are — all of the cost actions we took, all of the fixed cost actions that we took as difficult as those were, all of those give us the ability to execute against our earnings and our cash profile more importantly based on kind of a flat to slightly down volume profile and that’s what we currently anticipate and that’s what’s in our model.

Second half weighted in terms of things like the PPI pass-through mechanisms and even some additional cost savings that we anticipate in the second half of the year. But, yes, second half weighted plan, whether volume moves meaningfully off of our current run rate, that would be upside, correct, and we would — yeah, we look forward to seeing that upside. We can step into it, as I commented earlier in the call on both safety stock and our operational and performance. So there’s room for upside, but we need to see that the end consumer health and pricing behavior will play a role and a significant role in that.

Mike Roxland: Got it. And then just one quick follow-up in terms of South America and you mentioned Dan being a little bit behind the market. Was part of that being behind the market due to the bankruptcy of a large beer producer down there? And then if you were behind the market, just any updated thoughts on the plants that you have idled in Brazil, like, Frutas and others and whether they can ultimately become permanent closures?

Dan Fisher: Yeah. We — the only permanent closures we have had, we have announced. So we have got dry powder in that marketplace. Some of these assets are being contemplated to open back up depending on what happens in the market, as you indicated. There was share shift in Q1 and there was one — one of our competitors benefited, because they had outweighted exposure to one of the beer brands there. A weaker beer customer or beer mix may shift around as it does from time to time. We believe that the customer relationships that we have, they are excited about the second half of the year more so for the cost shift and their hedges rolling off and us being able to step into our aluminum profile. But, yeah, it was a little choppier because of customer mix for us in the first quarter.

Scott Morrison: We didn’t have any exposure to the customer that went bankrupt.

Mike Roxland: Got it. Very clear. Good luck in 2Q.

Dan Fisher: Thank you.

Operator: Thank you. The next question comes from Phil Ng of Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Phil Ng: Hey, guys. Congrats on a solid quarter and a pretty tough demand environment. I guess…

Dan Fisher: Thank you.

Phil Ng: … Dan, it would be helpful. Dan, I think, it would be helpful to kind of give us some color in terms of how intra-quarter volume trends kind of sell throughout North America and Central America. How April is kind of shaping up and do you kind of expecting — expect more of the same effectively in 2Q in terms of the volume trends?

Dan Fisher: Yeah. Thanks for the question — I do. In fact, it’s probably a little softer than Q1, but that’s anticipated and we are managing against that. But, yeah, as we sit here today, there’s not a lot of movement by the customer base to shift what’s currently happening. April is usually not the month that you usually see activity. So you get to the second half of May and June, that becomes really important as you head in the peak season. But as we sit here today, I think, the way you characterize it is correct. It’s largely in line with Q1 and pockets depending on customer mix may be a bit softer.

Phil Ng: Got you. And then for Latin America, Central America, Latin America, you are expecting…

Dan Fisher: Yeah.

Phil Ng: If I heard you correctly, Dan, mid-single-digit growth. So that would imply a pretty sizable ramp in the back half. Part of this, it sounds like it’s predicated on the view that maybe your customers lean into loan hedges rolling off. How much line of sight do you have? I mean like just like promotions in North America, it’s been tough to predict. How much line of sight do you have that your customers would behave as such and will help you kind of jump start that demand backdrop, because it’s been pretty choppy in Brazil?

Dan Fisher: No. I think it’s a great question and it is. We built our plan on it second half loaded because of everything that you just outlined and indicated. The conversations that we are having with our customers, I will be down there next week has all been. You should count on that. That’s what they are planning for. But plans aren’t absolute. So at this point, I haven’t heard anything, I don’t have any insight that would suggest anything other than what we have laid out, what we have characterized. But I think your point is valid, I mean, there’s certainly risk in a significantly elevated volume position. But our contracts also have backstop provisions in there that give us a little bit more teeth than maybe in years past.

Phil Ng: Okay. And sorry, just to sneak one more in. North America, you are expecting volumes to be flat to down a little bit. Any color on the back half what that assumes, is it more like flat, is it still down a little bit or maybe inflect a little bit up in the back half of North America?

Dan Fisher: Yeah. It’s — right now, I would — how we get there is slight declines in the first half and flattish in the back half.

Phil Ng: Okay.