Axsome Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:AXSM) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Graig Suvannavejh: Great. Thanks so much for taking my question. Congrats on the quarter and the year. Maybe my question is a bit bigger picture in perspective as it relates to your marketed products and Auvelity and Sunosi, I know you’ve just launched Auvelity and you’ve just gotten your hands on Sunosi, but do you have a sense of at what points you as a company might be in a position to provide financial guidance around what you see for sales for each of those products and maybe even from a bigger picture perspective, could you remind us as you think about the total revenue opportunity for Auvelity or AXS-05 either in depression and also in AD agitation and what you — how you think about Sunosi in EDS, both in OSA and narcolepsy? Thanks so much.

Herriot Tabuteau: I’m sorry, Greg, can you repeat the first part of your question, one more time for me?

Graig Suvannavejh: Yeah. It was really more a questions around the timing of when as a company. You might feel that you’re comfortable enough to buy financial guidance on forward-looking sales in any particular year for this? Is this a situation where perhaps maybe three years down the line or two years? Just how you’re thinking about what might be comfortable?

Herriot Tabuteau: Yeah. I would say, obviously, the way you prefaced your question originally is, we’re in very early stages for Auvelity as well as Sunosi. So we haven’t discussed when we would potentially give sales guidance as it relates to both products, one would , with Sunosi being a somewhat more mature product that we would be able to give some guidance on that product first. Auvelity, we’re looking at various models here and would fluctuate drastically. So we’re — it would be further along. I can’t give you any specific timing when we give sales guidance.

Nick Pizzie: What we did — second part of your question here, we have talked about the sales potential, the peak sales potentials or both Auvelity as well as Sunosi. Starting with the Sunosi, just with the current indication, we expect the product — we believe that the product for that HCP $300 million to $500 million. And we’ve also said that we believe the product has brought us a potential leading sales potential of at least $1 billion, if you take into account the potential new indications. And as we discussed, we are about to launch the pivotal trial . And with regards to Auvelity, we think that Auvelity has $1 billion potential in both MDD individually as well as in Alzheimer’s Disease agitation individually. MDD based upon the size of that market in terms of the number of patients who have in the MDD treated Alzheimer’s disease agitation based upon not just the prevalence of Alzheimer’s disease and the percentage of patients who have agitation, which is about 70%, also make on the fact that there’s nothing currently to treat those patients.

Graig Suvannavejh: And then maybe one more follow-up for me. Just on Sunosi, where the split in its current use is, I believe, 70% in OSA and 30% currently in narcolepsy, I’m wondering if as you look out in the future with your current plans, whether that is a number that will evolve from there or if it will stay there. And if it does evolve, any sense on which direction it might evolve in terms of that split? Thanks.

Lori Englebert: Yes. Thanks, Graig. I don’t think — or I don’t foresee especially in this current indication, but that’s gone to evolve much as I mentioned before, our focus is heavily on OSA, just given the sheer size of the prevalence — of that position, but we’re not taking our foot off the gas on a narcolepsy also it is a very, very efficacious product in from narcolepsy.

Graig Suvannavejh: Thank you.

Operator: Next question comes from the line of Bert Hazlett with BTIG. Please proceed with your questions.