Avista Corporation (NYSE:AVA) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Kevin Christie: Yes, I can appreciate the question there, Brian. So, back to your first point or the point around guidance and guidance setting and ERM, we typically don’t guide with the ERM included. But for 2023, we’ve had significant headwinds around hydro — poor hydro condition in the way the water came off. And so that led us to hear on — and the prior quarter to acknowledge an $0.08 headwind on hydro. On the actual results are why we’re seeing the Utility perform a bit better. When you do exclude the hydro, we have continued to manage our costs pretty successfully. And that has — that’s a big part on why we’re showing a bit better. We moved the bottom end of the range up by $0.03 for the Utility segment.

Brian Russo: Okay, got it. And what’s driving the AEL&P performance up $0.02?

Kevin Christie: They’ve had a bit better weather as well as some cost management as well.

Brian Russo: Okay, great. And then I know it’s early in terms of the upcoming hydro season and water supply levels. But can you remind us what typically occurs with your resource costs in a La Niña-type scenario?

Kevin Christie: Well, that’s funny. We’re talking about weather here, Brian and that’s a dangerous topic. I would share that I’ve seen a lot of data from our power supply team that shows that it can be a real mixed bag, whether you’re in a La Niña or El Niño. And although I think what many would say is we’d expect a bit warmer and a bit drier than normal in the winter. We’ve seen many instances where that just hasn’t been true and we’ve seen wetter and colder. And that’s–

Brian Russo: Understood. Thank you very much. No, I got it. Very good. Thank you very much.

Kevin Christie: Thanks again for the questions.

Operator: Thank you very much. Our next question is from Jamieson Ward with Guggenheim Partners. Your line is open.

Jamieson Ward: Hi good morning. How are you guys?

Kevin Christie: Jamieson, doing good.

Dennis Vermillion: Good morning.

Jamieson Ward: Good. Understood from your prepared remarks that you’ll provide 2024 guidance, including segment insights on the fourth quarter call, but higher level, in aggregate, do you expect growth to be linear into 2024?

Kevin Christie: What I can say there, Jamieson, is that we get our next big bump up in earnings. So, it will be non-linear as we think about 2025. So, this next case that we’ll file in the first quarter of 2024 in Washington is a big impact on our expected earnings in 2025. And so we’d see much a bigger increase in 2025 versus the movement from 2023 to 2024.

Jamieson Ward: Got you. Got you. And then as we think about the other business segment going forward, any insights you can give us there on kind of timing and schedule around the potential at least for further valuation-related adjustments or impacts on earnings? Obviously, you can’t predict where valuations will be in the future. But just trying to get a sense of magnitude so that we can and have a sensitivity of what could occur in the other segment in the future?

Kevin Christie: Yes. Again, we’ll give guidance next quarter for all segments — likely give guidance next quarter for all segments when we when we have that conversation with you all. And I think one of the things you’re alluding to is one of our investments that we’re seeing a little bit more volatility. And what we’ve shared is that there’s a clinical trial that we’d expect to have a better understanding of how things are working out for them in the latter part of next year. And so it’s — there’s not much more I can add at this point in time.

Jamieson Ward: Understood. Thank you very much and look forward to seeing you guys at EI.

Kevin Christie: Same here. Thank you.

Operator: Thank you. Our next question is from Willard Grainger with Mizuho Financial Group. Your line is open.

Willard Grainger: Hi, good morning team. Thanks for taking my question.

Kevin Christie: Morning.

Willard Grainger: Just want to understand a little bit, what should we be assuming as the base year for your 4% to 6% EPS CAGR?