Avis Budget Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:CAR) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Operator: Thank you. The next question is coming from Ryan Brinkman of JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

Ryan Brinkman: Hi, thanks for taking my question. I would just like to ask on the trend in revenue per day after tracks stronger than we expected in the fourth quarter. I heard the comments on 1Q, but what are your thoughts on what the new normal might be here or what the structural versus cyclical drivers of RPD may be and how that could shake out going forward? I mean, it seems like there’s so much focus on what’s happened with new and used vehicle prices and what the split of structural versus cyclical drivers there might be, which of course is somewhat related, but used price is down 15% in 2022, but your U.S. RPD up. Is that still driven by like present, like cyclical factors? Joe, I remember you saying in 2021 that the rental car industry will be at the bottom of the total pool for receiving vehicles from the automakers when they do get their semiconductors.

So I guess I’m just trying to ask like how much of this good news on RPD do you think is driven by still present cyclical factors, such as shortage of rental cars, et cetera, versus how much might be driven more by structural factors, such as discipline on the part of the rental car firms even after supply normalizes or anything else?

Joe Ferraro: Okay, thanks. Let’s take a look at a couple of factors. First of all, over the years, the amount of cars that the car rental companies have bought are certainly a lot less than they were. I don’t see that changing in this year. What things go in the years to come, hard to say, but I don’t see that changing as the demand for new cars continues to be robust. There’s a lot of demand out there, a lot of travel-related demand and there are things that in our environment that may be causing that. Obviously, we have more commercial business than we had in the past. But if you take a look at what’s happening to the traveling consumer, I think that hybrid work has some significant effect on potentially travel. You work in your office three days a week and you have off maybe Monday and Tuesday, that allows someone to look at their life maybe differently and say, you know what, I’m going to work remotely for two days and experience the benefits of an enhanced experience or improved through travel and go see — go to a sporting event or see a show or things of that nature.

I also think leisure is much more prominent than it was in the past. Leisure being, someone who goes on a business trip and then decides to stay over a couple of more days, I think that has increased, and that’s structurally different than what we saw pre-pandemic. And I think that has a heightened effect on demand. And when demand is high and supply is somewhat constrained, you’re always going to see the improvement in price. And I think we’ll see that — we have seen that in January and February. What happens in the future is hard to say, but we intend to stay disciplined.

Brian Choi: Yes, Ryan, without getting into any kind of like specific guidance here, I think you mentioned discipline in the rental car industry about kind of the demand of absorbing new vehicles, I think another thing to consider is discipline in the OEM industry as well. The automakers are just making fewer cars and they’re allocating a fewer portion of that to the rental car providers, so this is, that’s one thing that we view as structural. And also from our perspective, we are laser-focused on just a return on invested capital and RPD will reflect that. Does that move lockstep quarter-to-quarter as depreciated? No. But over the course of time, we do require an appropriate return on our invested capital, and we’re going to price our assets to reflect that.