AutoZone, Inc. (NYSE:AZO) Q1 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Bill Rhodes: Well, that’s a strong statement, Simeon, in the all clear. I think we still have a level of anxiety on what the next year or so is going to look like coming off of unprecedented growth over the last three years. If we were on this call last year, we had expectations that our sales — our same-store sales would decline, and they didn’t. They were up considerably, and they were positive in DIY. Here we are again, comping off a positive DIY number with another positive DIY number. So, I think the farther we get away from the pandemic and the more resiliency we see in the DIY business, the more confidence we have that the gains that we picked up during the pandemic are sustainable. That said, I wouldn’t characterize it as €œall clear€.

Jamere Jackson: Yes. The only thing I’d add to that is when we look at our business in our bread and butter failure and maintenance categories, our volume trends have been strong, as Bill mentioned in his prepared comments. The relative inelasticity of demand there gives us a lot of confidence about that business. But in our discretionary categories, we were down 2.5%. And if you think about where consumers are feeling the most pressure today and where that pressure actually manifests itself, it manifests itself in discretionary purchases. And so, the fact that our discretionary business trends actually improved quarter-over-quarter, give us a lot of confidence about the future. That being said, there’s still a lot of volatility and uncertainty, as Bill mentioned. We’ll continue to manage our business accordingly.

Simeon Gutman: And then my follow-up is on used car prices. The empirical evidence tied to the industry’s growth isn’t great, statistically speaking. But it certainly has been a benefit. And it still feels like the industry is benefiting from the surge that we’ve seen. Are you finding there’s sensitivity now on the way down? Do you feel like we’re still benefiting from the surge? And then, if so, when does that tail off? And I don’t know if it becomes a headwind or not in your minds?

Jamere Jackson: Yes. I look at the macro in a pretty broad way. You’ve got a couple of dynamics going. One, you have an ageing and growing car part. And used car prices, while they’ve started to abate, they’re still up almost 30% over the last two years. New car prices are up closer to 20%. And you’re in an environment where you have rising interest rates that have made financing more challenging. So we do believe that it is still a little bit of a tailwind for our business. And more importantly, we’ve been managing our business to take advantage of all of the robust market opportunities that we have, and this is just one portion of that. I think as we’ve talked about our business and the growth that we’re seeing, it’s not just that macro strength, but inflation has been our friend to some extent, driving higher prices, volumes held up under those dynamics.

And our growth initiatives have helped us create a faster-growing business in both DIY and DIFM. So, when you take the combination of what you’re seeing from inflation, from our growth initiatives, from the work that we’ve done with hubs and mega-hubs and this macro strength, those are all the things that are in the soup, if you will, in terms of how our business is growing.

Operator: Your next question is coming from Kate McShane from Goldman Sachs.

Kate McShane: You had mentioned at the beginning of the call about your improving in-stock position. I wondered if you could talk a little bit more about that and where you see yourself by the end of €˜23 from an in-stock position? And then, I’ll follow up with my second question. Thank you.

Bill Rhodes: Sure, Kate. Yes. Our in-stock position today is meaningfully better than it was at this time last year — well, 18 months ago. It’s up a little bit from this time last year. It’s up a little bit from Q4, but we’re still about 200 basis points below our historical expectations and experiences. When will it resolve? It still — frankly, Kate, I would have thought it had been resolved by now. But there are certain product categories that are still a challenge, and we’re looking to continue to find new sources in some of those categories and new geographies in some of those categories to help us get past it. But we feel pretty good about where we are. We feel very good about where we are competitively.

Kate McShane: And is there an expectation that you’ll want to do better than the 200 basis points where you are below those expectations? And in terms of how much your sourcing has changed, has it been meaningful since where you used to source pre-pandemic?

Bill Rhodes: Yes. Our sourcing has not changed a significant amount at this point in time. We do have some objectives to diversify the geographies with which we source in basically every category. As far as having higher expectations for in-stock, right before the pandemic, we’d reached an all-time high, which was 100 basis points ahead of where we were historically. So, our supply chain team — need to remind them that we need to break our old high, which was 100 basis points higher. So, that would be about 300 basis points ahead of where we are right now. And I think they’ll get there. It may take a little more time.

Operator: Your next question is coming from Chris Horvers from JP Morgan.