Atlas Copco AB (PNK:ATLKY) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Mats Rahmstrom : You’re right about the cancellations. We saw big cancellations in the beginning of the year in Q1, specifically, and then those have declined. Well, maybe we need to look into that sense, but it’s a flat scenario right now, strong in North America at this time.

Peter Kinnart: Thank you, Klas. Sorry, maybe also contributing to that was the fact that Scientific and Industrial vacuum was weakening in the fourth quarter in general, and that was also something, especially in China, which was notable.

Operator: The next question comes from Andrew Wilson from JPMorgan.

Andrew Wilson: I just wanted to ask on compressor. And just I think in the quarter, if I’m not wrong, the industrial compressors were stronger, and you mentioned kind of particularly in large compressors, but also small and medium-sized compressors were still up year-on-year. And then process was weaker. I’m just trying to understand how much of that is about comps? And how much of it is kind of underlying market conditions? And how much do you feel is kind of new products winning some share? Because I guess intuitively, I would have expected maybe the industrial markets to be slowing and process being led cycle to still be quite strong and it’s almost to the way around. So I’m just trying to get a feel for how much you think this is a comment on the underlying market and how much is kind of not necessarily Atlas specific, but specific in terms of some of the trends we’ve seen in the quarter?

Mats Rahmstrom : I can at least start and Peter can follow. It is not a weak market for gas and process, it’s just that the comparison as you indicated, that’s why it’s challenging. On the other side, we have broadened the range of products. So it’s chemical and it’s petrochem gas posing a liquid natural gas. So there’s a lot of different applications. But these projects are normally quite big. So one or two orders can swing one quarter to the other. But in general, we see that there is a strong demand for this type of products in general. And then we’re happy to see that Industrial was positive, although that the bigger was even more positive then. And then we have, at least, is that the bigger machines that I showed on the first picture is normally goes into companies with a long-term strategic view, and they continue with their strategic plan.

So if they’re going to build a battery factory or whatever it might be, they continue with their plans anyway. And smaller that are sub-suppliers, they don’t have the financial strength. And then, of course, they tighten up their CapEx much quicker, and that’s the small industrial compressors. So — and this is what we have seen year after year after year that the long-term strategic business continues, and of course, there is not the same self-confidence with the smaller players, so then it’s easier for them to pull back on investments. But of course, it will come back as well.

Operator: The next question comes from Max Yates from Morgan Stanley.

Max Yates: Look, I guess my question is just a little bit around the guidance. And I kind of understand that, look, we’re at SEK 37 billion of orders. You’ve said that sort of seasonally, they probably get a bit better and then they’re going to be below the sort of SEK 48 billion that we did this time or in Q1 last year. So obviously, that’s quite a big range where we’re sort of talking about SEK 37 billion to SEK 48 billion. So I guess, is there any sense of kind of when you talk about flat demand, what do you see as kind of normal seasonality for this business? Would normal seasonality be going back to 40%? Would it be more like 44%? Obviously, given the kind of exceptional gas and process environment we’ve seen, obviously, exceptional Power Technique environment you saw last year, it probably isn’t last year, but is there any way you can help us sort of how to think about it within that range and where you see the normal seasonality in your business and any kind of magnitude on how we should think about it?

Mats Rahmstrom: I think you, Max to have followed us for so long, you know that we don’t guide on numbers. We try to guide on the activity, the level as we see it right now, and that’s kind of difficult enough. But yes, we do see that normally Q1 is stronger. And the main driver over many years has, of course, been that, that’s the season for the Power Technique business. On the other side, now then when the industrial pumps is in Power Technique, we will over time see less and less seasonality from Power Technique as well. The other thing that we have seen, if you follow our report is that normally, we see a softer Asia, China in Q4, and we don’t know how big we recovered, but many years we have at least seen a stronger China in Q1, if that’s a new budget or what is the reason for that, we have not speculated in.

But normally, we see somewhat of a stronger Q1 than we see Q4 push out a lot of products, closing a lot of projects in Q4, and then you get a little bit more orders received in Q1, but we don’t have a number for.

Max Yates : I mean without asking another question, I mean on Power Technique, we’ve heard quite a lot from companies reporting in the last couple of days about quite a lot of excess inventory in construction equipment, sort of rental companies not reinvesting, Sandvik talked about some smaller ones struggling. How do you see the sort of typical buying season and typical kind of purchasing season in construction equipment this year versus others? Do you see similar dynamics in that market?

Mats Rahmstrom : But we — considering that most suppliers quite some time have very, very long lead time. So a lot of ordering happened quite early. And I think we normalized lead times right now. And you’re absolutely right. We see that there is more stock and inventory at some of the rental companies, some of the dealers. So it is more challenging as we have discussed before. We do not see that is a complete stop in any way. So that’s what we see at this point. And I think the determining factor will be in Q1, what will happen here and see how many of these quotes will actually turn into orders. So yes, we have to wait and see.

Operator: The next question comes from John Kim from Deutsche Bank.

John Kim : This is John from Deutsche Bank. If we could head back to VT for a second, could you give us a sense of the kind of end market or customer mix in either your backlog or your index, whatever you’re comfortable with between the logic memory and foundry? I’m just trying to get a sense of how VT compares this year versus maybe the industry overall in terms of growth and dynamics [indiscernible].

Mats Rahmstrom : I don’t have those details on top of my head, it might be with the semi division, but I don’t have it for a Q report. I’m looking at Peter, if you can help in any way.

Peter Kinnart: No, I think I can only say that from an application point of view, we are pretty agnostic if we talk about semi, whether it’s in whichever segment within semi ultimately goes the different types of equipment that we have are offered to all different customers. So for us, that doesn’t really make a big — doesn’t have a very big influence overall, I would say. So from that point of view, I don’t think we can guide you specifically because as I said for us it doesn’t really make a huge difference, whether one or the other segment is performing strongly. We will get the orders from the segment that are there for all the products that we have.