Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation (NASDAQ:AUB) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

RobGorman: Yes, so Russell, we’re projecting that we’ll be in the 23% to 25% range, kind of where we were pre-pandemic close 22% to 25%. We’ve been holding fairly steady. We saw a big decline from the fourth quarter through the first two quarters and it’s kind of slowed down. Most of that is not really outflow going out of the bank. It’s really getting remixed into interest checking and some of our other higher-cost, higher-yielding rates categories. So we do expect to kind of stabilize around where we are. May drop a bit, but we’ll have to see how that plays out. But really not much shift going on here. In the end, there’s a stabilized level where people are using demand deposits for operating accounts and there’s a certain level it’s going to stabilize and that’s where we think it will be.

John Asbury: Yes, Rob is right about that. And as we’ve really grown the commercial business base of clients, to small and mid-sized businesses, you pick up more operating accounts, they’re using Treasury Management services. And I think if you look at our average balances, the average consumer balance this quarter was $19,000 going from memory. The average business client has about $100,000 in their account. This suggested me that many of them are probably at a kind of core operating level and non-interest bearing, we think. It’s hard to say to – we can’t predict with any precision where it’s going to be. But I agree with Rob, I think we’re sort of approaching the bottom. We’ll see exactly where…

RobGorman: Yes, I think, Russell, on the remix, a lot of that is kind of remixing from what I would call deposits and standard rates kind of moving to these higher levels from an interest checking or money market account to a higher yielding CD is kind of really what we’re talking about from remix and expect that will continue. But certainly will slow down from what it was in the first couple of quarters.

Russell Gunther: Okay, great. Thank you both. Just a clarification on the fee outlook. So I think I only half caught this. There was a certain merchant servicer signing bonus that was this quarter and about $1 million, and then just kind of where in the P&L that fell line item-wise?

RobGorman: Yes, that’s in other fees, Russell. Service charges and other fees and service charges.

Russell Gunther: Okay. That’s helpful. Thank you. And then just last…

RobGorman: Yes, other service charges, commissions, and fees.

Russell Gunther: Thank you. And then last one for me. Credit has been really strong for you guys. I hear the commentary about normalization. Understood. What does normalization look like for Atlantic Union, as you think out to ’24? And what would the drivers of that normalization be?

RobGorman: Yes, so we would project that 15 basis points to 20 basis points of annualized charge-offs is probably a normal level for us. Of course, we haven’t come near that to date in this period, but that’s kind of what we’re looking for. Things like higher interest rates and other recessionary factors could play into that. We’re not projecting that at this point, although our allowance for credit losses does skew towards a more recessionary environment. But that’s about what we think. And Doug, I don’t know if you have anything to add from the Chief Credit Officer’s perspective, but that’s the view we have as a company.

Doug Woolley: Yes, the weakening, if it comes, will be in smaller credits. We don’t see anything. We’ve done a recent resizing of maturing commercial real estate loans and construction loans converting to their mini-perm, they’re resizing on that and all of that looks perfectly fine to them. If something happens, it’ll be in the smaller commercial credit base and as is always the case, the consumer portfolio.