ATI Inc. (NYSE:ATI) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Another important part of it is going to be CapEx, capital spending. And so this year, our capital spending range has a midpoint of about $220 million. And what I shared previously still holds as you look at between now and 2025, what I expect is our CapEx spend is going to edge down. And by the time we get to 2025, I would expect our capital spending to be close to our depreciation rate and our depreciation rate at that point will be somewhere between probably $150 million and $170 million. So that’s helpful as well. And so all those are some of the building blocks to improving this cash conversion metric. I also expect, by the way, that when we’re out in the 2025 time frame, I still expect to be a limited cash taxpayer, which is going to be helpful in — at least in that period when it comes to cash conversion.

Operator: Our final question is from Timna Tanners from Wolfe Research.

Timna Tanners: The first question is really — we talked a lot about aerospace and defence. So I just we should probe some of the other end markets. I know they’re deemphasized. But on the positive side, you sound more constructive on specialty energy. So just wondering for a little more color on that and if you’ve quantified any of the IRA benefit and timing. And then on the more cautious side, your industrial headwinds contrast with what we’re hearing from others. So I’d love to get a little more color on that and why you’re confident in the H2 timing for China demand recovering. Why not earlier? Why H2? That would be really helpful.

Bob Wetherbee: All right. There’s a lot in that one. Do you want to take the first one, Don on the China, or you want me to do.

Don Newman: Sure. No, I’m happy to do it. As far as the China headwinds, the restrictions, of course, have fallen off significantly. The downside is there’s more COVID. And so what we’re seeing in our business and in a more broad circumstance. We’re seeing those actual COVID cases that are creating the headwinds in China and we have seen that — we saw that in kind of latter Q4. I think we’ve seen a bit of a step down in early Q1. And we’d like to see that headwind go away. We’re just — based upon the current pace of things, our expectations is that it’s going to be with us in the first half. Now it could be that the COVID cases recover much quicker than we’re planning. And our business is ready to roll. I can tell you that. But in an abundance of caution for how we view the business and the trajectory, our sense is it’s going to take us the first half.

Bob Wetherbee: That’s right. I think the thing is we want to see it before we forecast it. That’s the bottom line. Let’s see it materialized because there’s been a lot of ups and downs in that market over the last couple of years. I think your other question, Timna, was around oil and gas and energy in particular. I think we see strength specialty, specialty energy, yes, we definitely see the oil and gas side with the subsea, the offshore and the subsea systems, Nickel clad, various things, specialty alloy things for the deepwater or subsea systems. That’s growing and continues to come back strong. We continue to see in the specialty side, lots of activity in next-generation technologies, civilian nuclear is actually coming back.