ATI Inc. (NYSE:ATI) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

And I’ve been talking to more customers along with our Chief Operating Officer, Kim Fields. We talked a lot about to customers on a regular basis, and that’s really trying to get clarity of demand, and they’re working on it with urgency.

Operator: Our next question is from David Strauss from Barclays.

David Strauss: Is there any capital deployment assumed in your guidance for 2023?

Don Newman: So David, when you say capital deployment, could you be more specific?

David Strauss: Yes. I guess, returning cash to — or debt paydown or share buyback, anything assumed in the guidance you gave?

Don Newman: Yes. So what I would say is there’s a couple of elements that I would highlight. One, of course, when we think about capital deployment, we kind of have 3 legs to that stool. One is investing for growth. That’s, for us, primarily focused on the CapEx. We’ve talked about our CapEx guide at $200 million to $240 million in 2023 and then the second leg on that stool is about delevering and so to us, there’s 2 things that come to mind. One is the pension and first and foremost, we’re making voluntary contributions to the pension plan. This year, we have a $50 million contribution. We actually made that contribution earlier this week. So that is out of the way for 2023. We have another $50 million contribution that we have planned for 2024.

And then in terms of other debt actions, we really don’t have any imminent debt maturities that we’re going to have to deal with. So there’s no repayments that are required when it comes to bank debt or anything of that sort. And nothing is planned. I don’t plan to take out any of our ABL term loans or anything like that. And then the third leg, of course, is returning capital to shareholders. That’s extraordinarily important to us. In 2020, we — excuse me, 2022, we repurchased about $140 million of shares. We’ve got $10 million left on that $150 million program. So we’ll finish that share repurchase program up in early 2022. And then, of course, we’re expecting that we’re going to generate a healthy amount of cash flow as the aero ramp unfolds.

And our expectation is that we’re going to put that money to work and returning capital to shareholders continues to be a very, very important thing to us, and so it will continue to be a feature. So at this point, the board has not approved additional share repurchases beyond the remainder of the existing program, but I wouldn’t read anything into that fact because of the timing of an approval would be after we finish up the existing program. I hope that helps.

David Strauss: Yes, sure. And then a question on longer-term free cash flow conversion. So looks like in 2023, you’re targeting somewhere around 50% free cash flow conversion on net income close to the — probably 25% or so, 20% on EBITDA. I think before you’ve talked about 90% free cash flow conversion, is the target in 2025, where it looks like you’re targeting somewhere around $800 million or so, some $750 million, $800 million of EBITDA. What — maybe the building blocks are free cash flow out there?

Don Newman: Yes. So I’m happy to touch on that. Your math is right, by the way. If you do — you take the EPS guidance and you back into cash and cash conversion, we’re in that 50% range right now. We’ve made a significant improvement, by the way, in that metric over the last couple of years. But our stake in the ground is 2025 cash conversion of greater than 90%. And what’s going to happen is, of course, everything on cash generation starts with profitability. Our profitability is — has increased and is expected to increase significantly. That’s going to play a key part. We’re unlocking the efficiency in our managed working capital. So a huge step in that already in 2022 when we hit our target at 30%. We’re going to continue to make progress and improve on that working capital efficiency.