Peter Wennink: Yes. I think on your sales price you want to put into your models, I mean we guided EUV sales up with 40%, non-EUV with 30% and then installed base with 5%. I mean that’s in the end where you need to end up with if you’re going to change your model and you come to a different outcome, then something went wrong in your calculation. So…
Roger Dassen: And for the people that weren’t really carefully listening, what that really means in terms of ASP for EUV, we talked about it before. Originally, we were looking at €160 million. We’ve then been talking about €165 million to recognize also increased functionality, I think, with the increases on ASP on the inflation. I think it’s good to go somewhere between €165 million and €170 million. I think that’s, on average, I think, the right way to go.
Operator: And our next question comes from the line of C.J. Muse at Evercore ISI.
C.J. Muse: I guess first question, Peter, I was hoping you could take a step back and maybe talk about your discussions with customers. Obviously, reducing utilization to clear inventories. But at the same time, given your lead times, you’re continuing to have great visibility well beyond 2023. So I guess, can you kind of speak to the moving parts there? And I’d love to hear kind of your thoughts on your visibility for all of 2024.
Peter Wennink: Yes. Good question, C.J. Yes, I think in the discussion with customers, it’s exactly what I said. It’s very clearly, we concluded from the discussions that customers believe. And I think it’s also you can corroborate those statements with their public statements and basically saying some of the customers feel that they see a recovery towards the second half of this year. And that actually means that they tell us, “Listen, we know you guys are short of the demand we put on you.” So that means that we don’t want to risk our strategic investments, which go beyond the first half of 2023, moving into ’24 and ’25. So this is what that — we’re really having this midterm to long-term discussion with them of what’s needed.
And that’s why they keep saying, “No, we need those machine.” Having said that, of course, last year, we kept informing you that the demand on us significantly exceeded our build capacity, sometimes to 40%, 50%. Now that demand did come down. I mean that’s also clear that some of that demand disappeared because of the market situation. But the end result is that the demand — the cumulative demand is still higher than what we can make. So this is where we are. And I think that is driven by what I said that I think the average expectation on the duration of the downturn of, let’s say, working through the inventory is significantly shorter than the average lead time of our tools. I think — and that gives us a lot of visibility into 2024 also.
Customers give us orders throughout the year, very significant levels of orders, which actually have over €40 billion in the backlog, which is almost twice the system sales that we expect to have in 2023. So yes, we have the visibility. And it still means that the customer expansion plans on adding that capacity in 2024 are still very real. Otherwise, you wouldn’t give us these orders with down payments. So this is the level of visibility that we have. Now all of course hinges on the macroeconomic situation. Finally, you could say the expectation that the duration of any recession, if it would come, would indeed be short. I mean that’s the big question mark that is out there for all of us. But this is where we are today. And we’re just telling you what the discussions with our customers are currently at, and they are exactly what I just told you.
