Asbury Automotive Group, Inc. (NYSE:ABG) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

We just don’t — we think it’s too early to make that call and we still see the next three years growing SAR, and our opportunity to acquire more stores and get better with our software.

Rajat Gupta: But maybe just on 2023, your comments on parts and services, consistent growth, $14.5 million SAR and still relatively strong GPUs. Is it safe to assume that earnings might not decline this year with that kind of backdop?

David Hult: You know, it’s a fair question. You have the interest rates, you have your floor plan costs, you have different things that’ll come up on you naturally. Your healthcare costs go up every single year, so your cost per employees go up as well. And as I sit here today, I don’t have a guaranteed timeline for €˜23 how each manufacturer is going to recover with day’s supply. As we sit here today, we truly believe that the new car margins will hold up well throughout the year, but that could be altered. I mean, it’s been an odd last three years. On the used car side, you’ve seen margin fall pretty good, but we don’t think it’s going back to €˜19 levels, because you still have a supply issue in the marketplace where it’s been depleted the last few years. So while we think it may not potentially be quite as strong as it was prior year, as we sit here today, we don’t think it’ll be far off of 2022.

Operator: Our next question is from the line of Bret Jordan with Jefferies.

Bret Jordan: On the parts and service, could you talk about traffic versus ticket in the quarter, sort of what was price versus volumes?

Dan Clara: Part of it was price, but we also saw an increase in our customer pay, RO count throughout the quarter. When you look at, just break it down by the different segments, every segment saw an increase, and domestic was relatively flat, maybe down 2% from an RO count. So we’re seeing the traffic coming into the stores and we keep our schedulers, online appointment schedulers, wide open for a lack of a better term so that we can service the customers when it benefits them and not when it benefits us. And we’re seeing the results out of that.

David Hult: And Bret, one thing I would point out, because we’re a relatively small company a year and a half ago, we simply — we almost doubled the number of rooftops we have in a year. And we spent years working on the legacy stores to really get up to production and efficiency within our shops. We now have that same opportunity with all those acquisitions. So we think we got a nice tailwind over the next couple years working with our great teams up those markets at becoming more efficient and growing that business.

Bret Jordan: And then on SAR your forecast of mid 14s. Is that more production constrained or demand constrained? I guess, when you think about the puts and takes, is it — what is the normal — with natural SAR be higher if vehicles were available, or do you just sort of see a smaller group of buyers able to afford in this environment?

David Hult: Yes, it’s the question to ask and it’s a tough one to answer. I made the comment, over 35% of our incoming product is pre-sold. You go back to €˜19 levels, you were nowhere near that number from a pre-sale standpoint. So still selling — pre-selling 35% plus of your inventory before it hits the ground tells you that demand is still pretty good. I don’t want to be a broken record, but again, that average age of the vehicle being over 12 years creates an opportunity, and you have a resilient job market. And with that average age of the car and them not being able to purchase cars the last couple years because of availability, we think that there’s an opportunity to continue that steady growth. We don’t think we get back to the $17 million SAR, because production won’t be there.