Yaron Kinar: Okay. And then a couple of quick ones on the CFO Commentary. So, I am seeing a bit of a slowdown in Brokerage earn-out payables in 2024. Is that just the Willis Re true-up in ’23?
Douglas Howell: That’s right.
Yaron Kinar: Okay. And then, I’m also seeing a meaningful increase in the amortization of intangibles and Risk Management. Are you expecting any large M&A there? Or did you already conduct…
Douglas Howell: Yeah, we announced My Plan Manager acquisition here a month or so or two months ago. So that’s the $60 million worth of revenue in that disability business down in Australia.
Yaron Kinar: Okay. Got it. Thanks so much.
Douglas Howell: Sure. Thanks.
J. Patrick Gallagher: Thanks, Yaron.
Operator: Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Michael Ward with Citi. Please proceed with your question.
Michael Ward: Hi, guys. Thank you. Maybe just curious on Canada. I think one of your peers mentioned some headwinds there. And I think if we’re interpreting the commentary, it sounds like maybe you saw a slowdown, too. Just wondering if you could talk about that dynamic if you think that should persist in ’24?
Douglas Howell: Well, listen, I think they had some — they were posting 13 points, 14 points of organic growth. The market has shifted up there a little bit. So, I think they’ve been in the mid- to upper mid-single digits for the last four or five quarters. So, I don’t see much of a shift going into 2024.
J. Patrick Gallagher: Let me pile on that one, if you would, Michael. First of all, Doug, you’re right on. They’ve been killing in Canada. High upper digit organic year in and year out, and now they’re about 5%. That makes perfect sense to me, given where they’ve been. And I think the 5% is a great number.
Douglas Howell: Yeah. We actually had a couple of really great new business opportunity that just didn’t fall our way. For some reason, they decided to stay with the incumbent. So I think that if you normalize for those a handful of items, I think they would have had — add 3 or 4 more points to it.
Michael Ward: Okay. Thank you. And then, in the CFO Commentary, it looked like you guys outperformed your revenue pick for 2Q ’23 acquisition activity and increase the pick for first quarter for your 2Q ’23 acquisition activity. Just wondering is that momentum from Buck or what’s driving that?
Douglas Howell: All right. Help me understand what you’re looking at again. Tell me what you saw. I just didn’t track to your question. Sorry about that.
Michael Ward: It was just the revenue pick from 2Q ’23 — well, and you increased the 1Q ’24 pick. Just sort of wondering if that was Buck from $90 million to $95 million?
Douglas Howell: Listen, remember, every time we buy something, you’re going to get maybe four quarters of this disclosure. So as Buck runs that off, we also have Cadence and Eastern that are coming on in fourth quarter ’24, but that’s — you can see it there, the 2000 — second quarter 2,000, it falls away to nothing, right? It goes — which it would even if it were $5 million a quarter, it’s $95 million. So, that is what you’re seeing there. It’s just the run in a Buck that’s no longer M&A roll over.
Michael Ward: Okay. Awesome. And then maybe just following up on the question from earlier. Did I hear you sort of mention for benefits growth was kind of going to be at the — or you think it’s going to be towards the bottom end of the kind of spectrum across product lines this year?
Douglas Howell: No, I just said they might be running more like 7% versus 9% in some things next year. So that’s what I said. They would be more towards that lower end of that 7% to 9% range, just on the nature of their business.
Michael Ward: Okay. Thank you, guys.
Douglas Howell: Pause on that a little bit. Get the medical inflation that many are starting to worry about, we might have a different answer for you on that one, that heats up.
Michael Ward: Thank you.
J. Patrick Gallagher: Thanks, Michael.
Operator: Thank you. And our last question is coming from Meyer Shields with KBW. Please proceed with your question.
Meyer Shields: Thanks. I think two really small ball questions. Doug, you talked about why contingents in the fourth quarter a little bit better than the December expectation. But it also sounds like you’re not expecting reserve development to be a problem in 2024 if contingent organic matches core organic. Am I thinking about that right?
Douglas Howell: No, I didn’t say that. I think that on the casualty lines, I think that would impact our base commission. I don’t see it really eroding our supplemental or our contingents. If we do have a reserving, again, I don’t like you to use word crisis, but if there’s something like that, that happens may be something that, but I don’t see that eroding the contingent commission substantially next year as they take rational and orderly rate increases.
Meyer Shields: Okay. Understood. And then just — I may have missed this. But the increasing detail on Page 6 of the commentary where you break out the individual components, should we assume that those are all, I don’t know, 90%-plus margin revenue?
