Douglas Howell: Yes. We’re assuming that we’re paying raises this year about similar to what we have for the last 2 years. So that’s in the numbers. Also in that, I did a little — I did a small vignette during the December IR Day. If you really look underneath that, there’s probably 10 or 15 basis points as we toggle to Software as a Service that might be against that 50 basis points, too. So maybe it’s more like 60 basis points, but in the accounting of where that expense gets charged does influence that a little bit. You and I talked about that in December, I think, too.
Elyse Greenspan: And then on the reinsurance side, strong into the year, great rate increases we saw at January 1, but also we’ve seen higher retentions by primary companies. And I don’t think we’ve really been in a similar environment, right, where you have 40% price increases with perhaps less premium to the market. So when you put that all together, does ’23 feel like an environment where you could show double-digit organic growth within your reinsurance business?
Patrick Gallagher: Yes, I think we could.
Operator: Our next questions come from the line of Rob Cox with Goldman Sachs.
Robert Cox: My first question is on the U.K. retail and specialty organic of 17%. Obviously, very strong. And I was just wondering if you could talk a little bit about what’s driving that growth.
Patrick Gallagher: Yes. As we said, a very, very strong new business in specialty with tenant rate increases. And as we’ve talked earlier, there were some term changes and the like. But also our aviation specialty team just crushed it this quarter in the U.K. And our retail operation across the United Kingdom did extremely well also. But I just think the whole London-based specialty team, reinsurance aviation just is set phenomenal close to the year.
Robert Cox: That’s great. And just a question on the labor market. A number of companies are instituting layoffs. I’m just curious what type of unemployment rate is embedded in your organic guide of 7% to 9%. And if we did start to see some erosion there, at what point in the year do you think we would start to see that impact potentially in your organic growth?
Patrick Gallagher: Well, let me just back up to our prepared comments again. It’s very, very interesting. First of all, we don’t play that much in the high-tech Employee Benefit business, and it’s not that big a segment for us in terms of the layoffs you’re seeing that are making the newspaper. And as I’ve said in previous quarters, we’re already in the same papers, right? And we all see the same news reports. However, our middle market, core business is doing — our clients are doing extremely well, and we keep reporting our — what we’re seeing in our midterm endorsements and changes to policies and as we see both our renewals and the audits going forward, our middle market, retail, property casualty benefits business, these people are doing very, very well.
Truck counts are up. Our trucking business is very strong. Our work comp renewals in terms of payrolls are not being diminished. Now that doesn’t mean that if there is, in fact, a global recession that it won’t impact us, of course, it will. But at this point in time, we’re not seeing that. So if you ask me where do we see an impact on that type of growth as we go forward this year. I’ll tell you, our plans at present don’t count on any recessionary pressure. And that could be wrong.
Operator: Our next questions come from the line of Yaron Kinar with Jefferies.
Unidentified Analyst: This is Andrew on for Yaron. Just looking at head count in Brokerage, it looks like there’s been a pretty good pickup year-to-date and in the quarter specifically. Can we kind of talk about what’s going on there? And roles you’re hiring and the degree to which those hires have been reflected in organic yet?
