Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares (NASDAQ:ARM) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

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Jason Child: Harlan, this is Jason. I’ll start with that — I’ll start with your question. I think at a high level, if I look at last year, you can kind of back into bookings by looking at revenue plus change of backlog. That total number was about $2.2 billion last year. And if you look at kind of what we’re assuming for this year, we’re definitely assuming less than that. Now last year, we started with a number that was quite a bit below $2.2 billion. And as we mentioned, we had a really strong booking year mostly because of incremental deals that came because of mostly due to AI. So our assumptions for this year on license is that right now, we’ll probably have maybe 60% of the bookings that we had last year, at least that’s what it would take to get to kind of our plan.

Now there certainly is opportunity. If you look last year, it was — there was some overage that was probably somewhere in that similar range. We started out with a plan that was probably more like 60% or 70% of what we actually achieved. So we do have good line of sight to the current plan, and we did provide a relatively wide range, mostly because we have to try to factor in the timing of when these deals are going to hit and whether they’re going on record, they’re Q3 or Q4 or whatever. But in terms of if you kind of back up and say, well, when I see kind of the midpoint of guidance for this year, how much — what’s the confidence level? I’d say we’re at 80-plus percent of the midpoint of our plan — of our guidance is already either in backlog or under contract in royalties.

So really, what we’re trying to do is we’re trying to forecast what is the incremental bookings that we’re going to sign for the year, of which a bunch of that’s already in the pipeline. And then what possibly could there be beyond that? I’m not really forecasting the stuff that’s beyond that what’s in the pipeline today. But if it — if this year looks like last year, that’s where some possible upside would come.

Harlan Sur: Well, thank you, Jason.

Jason Child: Thanks, Harlan.

Operator: Thank you. I would now like to turn the call back to Rene Haas, CEO, for closing remarks.

Rene Haas: Thank you, everyone, and thank you for all the questions, a very good set of dialogue and hopefully, we always give some insight in terms of why we are so confident about the future of our company. This is our third quarter as a public company, so it’s the third time we’ve done one of these calls. And it’s the third time that we’ve reported record revenue to you. And it’s the third time that we’re going to be forecasting growth on the quarter going forward. So we’ve had three quarters of record revenue as a public company. We’re also forecasting that next quarter. And I think, again, what you’re seeing is the validation of the strategies that we put in place some years ago all coming to fruition, the expansion of our business into multiple markets such as infrastructure, automotive, client PCs, and of course, smartphones.

In addition to that, the AI tailwind, which has driven unprecedented growth for our licensing business. So ARM is a platform company unlike any other. It’s a business unlike any other and the growth and outlook for the company could not have been brighter. To come off of a year where we’re talking about 20% growth, and then talking about the year following and the year following where we will do better than that, it’s a great business to be in. So thank you for all your time, and I’ll leave it now to lan or who else to close the call.

Ian Thornton: That’s all from us, and thank you very much indeed. We’ll talk to some of you later and some in 90 days’ time.

Operator: And this concludes today’s conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

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