Ares Commercial Real Estate Corporation (NYSE:ACRE) Q1 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

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Richard Shane: Yes, I did a search of the Q for covenant and amendment, and I got $150 million of each. So, I wasn’t able to find my answer. I’m sure it’s in there. Second question, look, if we look at the forward curve and compare 1 month forward SOFR for ’25 today versus where it was in January, expectations are rates are up 100 to 125 basis points from where expectations were in January. I am curious in your conversations with borrowers, or what you’re seeing if that expectation that rates are going to be so much higher for longer. And again, it’s forward curve, so we have to take it with a grain of salt. But is that driving capitulation? Is it driving people’s behaviors to change in a material way from what sentiment was even at the beginning of this year?

Bryan Donohoe: Yes, good question, Rick, and a few questions in there, and I’d say summarily, yes. I think that the stability in rates in Q4 was catalytic in terms of causing some transactions to be consummated. And I think we saw a good pop of activity in Q1, much of which was in the headlines in terms of apartment, industrial trades, and fairly sizable ones. I think that started the process. I don’t know, maybe capitulation isn’t a perfect word, but for the real estate market to get back to forward looking into consummate transactions. And so, while the rise in rates since that period of time has not been accretive to values, it’s clearly in the public and private markets, you’ll see a strong correlation to rates in terms of the prints, I do think that the train started to leave the station to some degree, and therefore we expect people to either realize that their assets are worth what they are worth and therefore move on.

So, there’s a financial capitulation, but also the time allocation for legacy holders of assets may no longer be worthwhile. And on the other side of that more positive tone would be that, that higher for longer means the yields available as a lender continue to be high and widely publicized. When there is this level of duress in the market, it can be a generational opportunity to invest in equities and structured debt, things like that. So, I think that the stability in rates and then the backing up is either way going to lead to more resolutions, whether it’s characterized as capitulation or great opportunities.

Operator: And with no further questions, I would like to turn the conference back to Bryan Donohoe for any additional or closing remarks.

Bryan Donohoe: Appreciate that, operator. Yes, I just want to thank everyone for their time today. We appreciate the continued support of Ares Commercial Real Estate, and we look forward to speaking to you again on our next earnings call. Thank you.

Operator: And, ladies and gentlemen, this concludes our conference for today. If you missed any portion of today’s call, an archived replay of this conference will be available approximately 1 hour after the end of this call through June 9, 2024, to domestic callers by dialing 1-800-759-0728 and to international callers by dialing 140-220-7229. An archived replay will also be available on a webcast link located on the homepage of the Investor Resources section of our website.

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