Ardmore Shipping Corporation (NYSE:ASC) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

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And this has enabled us to now pursue all of our capital allocation priorities simultaneously . We are balancing the energy transition with energy reality above all prioritizing carbon reduction projects, which yield very high current returns and improve our operating performance today. And as a final, but I think really perhaps the most important point, we feel that we could be in for a really good multi-year run in our markets and that Ardmore will continue to excel in these conditions. So just before pivoting to Q&A, I want to thank Curtis for coming up to join us today, also to Bart and Gernot, along with Mark and his team, for their leadership in achieving our results. And John and Allan, Brian and Elliott for the great work in putting this whole thing together and organizing the event.

We will now open up the call for questions.

Q – Unidentified Analyst: Congratulations, first of all. Obviously, earning extraordinary returns now will continue as long as it continues. But we’re entering a new era, obviously, hopefully, for the industry, for the company. Can you just comment on where you expect the long-term ROE kind of to settle out? I know there are ups and downs in vagaries. But kind of where it’s been in the last decade and where you think it will be in the future decade once we’re done with the abnormal period in the war?

Anthony Gurnee: When anybody says, here’s to the beginning of new era, you want to run for the access. I don’t know if it’s a new era. It’s a continuum. Look, we’re in an extraordinary phase. I think it’s interesting to think back to the very early 2000s and what kind of kicked off that strong run through the abnormalities. It was actually a couple of oil spill from single-haul tankers. That then led to the growth in China, kind of all unrelated events. But call it Murphy’s law or whatever you want to call it, these things tend to build. And so that’s why we do think that €“ we don’t think it’s just fundamentals alone or Ukraine conflict alone, but probably a sequence of things that are going to continue to drive the market.

Ultimately, this is a highly efficient competitive global industry. I think we’re doing a marvelous job providing the global economy with efficient transport. Occasionally, we make a lot of money. I do think that we’re going to be going through a phase of probably very substantial fleet turnover and replacement into new technologies. Personally, I think it’s going to take longer than anyone expects. If you think about what happened with single-haul tankers, it took 20 years, right? When you build a ship, it’s a 25-year asset. And I don’t think the IMO or anyone else is going to do anything that’s going to create an economic crisis out of curtailing shipping supply.

Unidentified Analyst: Follow-up.

Anthony Gurnee: Yes.

Unidentified Analyst: What is the day rate that is required to get a 10% or 15% rate of return on a new ship?

Anthony Gurnee: Well, kind of a normalized newbuilding price, my guess would be maybe $17,000, $18,000 a day. That was a bit of a ramble, apologies, but it was a good question.

Unidentified Analyst: but not an industry expert by a very long way, but can you give us a sense of two things? One, hopefully, the easy question. These assets will all have market prices. What’s the market value of your assets today versus the share price? Second question is really unfair. Let’s just say the Ukraine invasion hadn’t happened and all the repercussions that you’ve seen and €“ really appreciate you articulating here. How much has that helped you? And if that €“ if there was €“ if it hadn’t happened, would you think you would have been today?

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