Ardmore Shipping Corporation (NYSE:ASC) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

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Anthony Gurnee: Typically, keep ships until they turn around 15 years of age. We sold three last year that were old age, and we sold them on a sale-leaseback basis and we took it back at $13,000 a day years. So that actually carries even . So our next older ship now is 2010, so it’s 13. It’s still a very efficient ship. We like the way it’s operating. So I guess the question is, would we sell anything now opportunistically? And the answer is yes, maybe, but you have to factor in the cash flow that’s quite visible near-term. And when you get to the other side of that, very visible and reasonably confident kind of basis and even look at one of your TC rates and freight future, et cetera, you get to a point where if you sold the ship at an impressive price today, back end of all that cash flow, it’s actually a pretty low price, .

And then the final thing I’ll say is that we don’t have the luxury that everybody in the audience has here to just sell the shares, right? So I mean we’re €“ anytime you want to sell the ships, just sell the shares. Yes, so

Bryan Degnan: And then last one from the webcast, you’ll answer this, but I’m going to ask it because they’ll let me hear it if I don’t. Given what you’re generating right now, given some of the slides that you had in the deck, how much dry powder could you accrue over the course of the year?

Anthony Gurnee: Dry powder, how do we accrue?

Bryan Degnan: Could you accrue over the course of the year? What does it look like a few quarters from now?

Anthony Gurnee: Well, I mean it could be another $150 million looking at these current levels.

Unidentified Analyst: Hey, just a quick one for me.

Anthony Gurnee: Yes.

Unidentified Analyst: We’re expecting to see quite a few bits of refinery runs over the course of first half of 2023 to the tune of roughly 3 million barrels per day in the Middle East and West Africa. Would you mind just sharing your view on how this reads through to ton-mile demand?

Gernot Ruppelt: Actually, a lot of the seasonal turnaround, particularly in the U.S. Gulf, we’re kind of past the peak here already. We’ve seen, of course, unusually strong winter weather, as I’m sure everybody in this audience can remember and it did knock out a fair bit of €“ have three U.S. Gulf refining capacity. So those would typically happen a bit later, but a lot of them actually went straight into an early turnaround. So from what we are tracking, we should kind of actually start to move out of it. West Africa, in terms of turnaround, is for us good news because that means it’s already an import market, and that just means more of an import draw. And the Middle East is a particularly interesting market because a lot of the product deficit in Europe comes from the Middle East markets, and we have seen the Middle East actually firm quite substantially.

I was just talking to somebody this week and particularly in that market, and they said it’s strong, but it’s actually still €“ even at these levels is giant. So I guess we’ll see. But the refining turnaround that we typically see in the spring, a lot of it is actually basically in the , particularly due to the heavy weather we’ve seen here in the U.S.

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