Anthony Gurnee: So one thing that I think is worth reflecting on is that the global economy, if it just continues to grow at like 3.5%, doubles every 20 years. Now in 2050, the global economy is going to be 3 or 4 times the size it is today. China, India, Africa, Latin America, et cetera, they’re way behind Europe and the U.S. William, so I think in the context of all that global growth, most of which is going to be happening in Asia. We think there’s going to be a market for petroleum transport. In time, we think the real growth is going to come from non-CPP, which is kind of chemicals, biofuels, vegetable oils, and that kind of stuff. So that’s where we’re heading strategically when the opportunities arise €“ in a manner, which we think is going to holding and improving our performance.
When I started in this business, products represented about 10% of the world tanker fleet. It’s close to 40%. I think €“ and versus crude. So I think you’re going to see the same kind of migration, not kind of type two cargoes that over time, we’re going to become a bigger slice of the pie, and that’s where we’re going to be.
Christopher Robertson: Hi, Chris Robertson with Deutsche Bank. So one of the downside risks here is just the general recession risk. So can you guys talk about demand elasticity for petroleum products during a regular kind of general recession versus the COVID-driven recession?
Anthony Gurnee: I went over to Bart.
Bart Kelleher: I mean I think for us, from the macro perspective, we fully acknowledge that there’s potential pressure there. It does feel like it’s more of a first half relative to second half potential reacceleration and more different geography-based. It feels like we’ve already, even from Gernot comments, starting to see increased flows related to China already. But I would say in this market environment and we looked at the supply-demand spreads and absent the February 5, Ukraine potential impact and reordering of the trades, you’re still at a 3% to 4% demand growth relative to near-zero fleet growth, and there’s going to be volatility there. So as we think about it, even if that were to compress them, for example, in €˜23, that €“ that’s not really the driver of the market. And as you’re reordering on the ton-mile story, it’s really the story Gernot shared.
Gernot Ruppelt: Maybe just to add a small nuance there, less macro, but for tankers in particular, of course, our demand is ton-mile demand and also ship availability. So even when you might be facing economic headwinds that could suggest that, for instance, the structure of the oil and product prices goes into a steep contango. So all of a sudden, there’s potential for more long-haul demand and also more storage demand as we have seen, which could actually bode quite well for tankers. So sometimes what that actually means in terms of tanker demand at least for a period of time, can be quite counter-intuitive and .
Unidentified Analyst: right here. We look at the crossover trades, and the maps right there, we’re looking at a balance and laden ratio of about 9:1. Is there a floor ceiling that you guys could put on that, especially looking at the vectors over time, environmental regulation, cyclicality, the aging fleets is there a floor ceiling on that number? Does it change? How do you assess that? And how do you guys act in the moment when you see that? Is there a lot of variability in that?
