Arch Resources, Inc. (NYSE:ARCH) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

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So DTA has been a great asset. It continues to be a great asset for us. We expect that it will move as we move forward. And I think we feel good in a lot of different ways we can manage the needs of that capital as we go forward.

Paul Lang: The other thing, I’d add to what John said is, it’s a great relationship with our partner dock [ph]. We clearly have a little less pressure on us than them as far as throughput. And it’s as we’ve given guidance, these capital projects that they’re talking about are not a surprise. We’ve baked in our numbers, as we’ve talked about CapEx over the years. And we also think we may have the ability to offset a large degree of it with our excess capacity, and going up to a third party. So look, I think it’s all well and good, but it’s really not a surprise to us, and really not an issue to us,

Deck Slone: As we look at and look that the annual requirement for us, we expect to be relatively modest. And as John indicated, with that spare capacity to generate additional cash flows associated with third party throughput, really view it as very manageable. So it’s a good asset. We want to continue to invest in it. We think it’s going to be an important part of our overall logistics chain going forward. But again, highly manageable.

Lucas Pipes: And is your excess capacity their currently leased to a third party or is it just idle at the moment?

Deck Slone: Yeah, we just recently offered out some spare capacity, some of that capacity. We’ve been really husbanding that for the last few years, but have started that process and likely will continue to do so. We can expand on it meaningfully. But have just taken the first sort of step on that front and really focused on thermal throughput. To this point, there’s been demand for it on the thermal side, which is a good fit for us. We’d rather move those volumes as thermal.

Lucas Pipes: That’s helpful. Thank you. Then going back to your coking coal volume outlook, and the way I think about mine output typically is kind of on a normal distribution on a bell shaped curve or so. And I wouldn’t expect you to provide a bell shaped curve here on a call. But I wondered if you could maybe speak to the range of outcomes for your four coking coal mines. Again, no need to be too scientific, but one standard deviation for mine, what does that look like? If you could just provide some ranges for your coking coal portfolio, I think that would be really helpful. Thank you.

John Drexler: Yeah, Lucas, I mean I think, we may not get into one standard deviation discussion here, but I mean, just as a general kind of view we’ve got two powerhouse long haul operations, Leer and Leer South. Between the two of them, I think in broad scale, you would expect some high volume production, the opportunity of 8 million tons, right. You may have in certain periods where one mine is a little less, you may have other periods where another mine is a little more. And then as we’ve indicated, with our two continuous miner operations, Beckley and Mountain Laurel, they’re each, kind of built to be around that million ton a year pace. We will always look to optimize the volumes, and quite frankly have had all kinds of success, in wringing out additional volumes across the portfolio through efficiency projects, what have you.

But kind of in the most simplistic view, that’s how I would kind of view it, that deck kind of gets you right around the 10 million tons there.

Deck Slone: And Lucas, as we think about guiding for next year, again, we’re not there yet. We’re going through the budget process. Leer has been in that 4 million ton per year range in coking coal. It isn’t very thick coal next year. So there is potentially upside there. And again, we’ll take that into consideration as we think about guidance. And as we provide guidance going forward that we feel very confident in. And Leer South is at that 3 million ton range, which is what we’re kind of sort of indicating we expect in 2024. Both Beckley and Mountain Laurel have been more in the one, one range. So there’s certainly upside. That idea of 9 million tons for next year. But we want to be careful and make sure that we’re guiding to very conservative numbers, and under promise and over deliver as we go forward. But that’s maybe gives you a little color.

Lucas Pipes: I appreciate that. Thank you. Then on the domestic side, North American medical contracts for 2020. The quality of that coal, how would you describe that? Was that [indiscernible], Beckley or Mountain Laurel? Or was that mostly [indiscernible]. Thank you very much?

John Drexler: Yeah, Lucas, yeah, look, we were real pleased with the opportunity we had with the North American markets. And I would say that the products that we sold the 1.5 million tons does represent the full suite of our products. They are High Vol A, Low Vol — High Vol B. Obviously the vast majority, or the majority of that I should say is High Vol A weighted. And likely for modeling purposes, you can use our typical splits that we have amongst the various volumes. But we’re real pleased with where we got and the outcomes that we achieved. Equally excited about the volume that we have exposed to the export markets as we stepped into ’24 as Paul indicated.

Lucas Pipes: Okay, thank you then. Last question for now for me. On the M&A side, how would you describe your level of interest? Are you looking? There are some assets out there that are for sale. There are public companies that trade at very attractive valuations. How do you think about M&A in this environment? Thank you.

Paul Lang: Lucas, I’ll answer it probably the way we’ve answered it every time. We’ve looked at everything, and we will continue to look at anything out there, particularly anything that comes up. Anything that can bring lower costs and greater value, we’re all ears. But at the same time we look at ourselves, particularly where we’re currently at. Our best investment right now is in our own stock. And that’s what our focus is. But I will assure you and I should — and I would expect the shareholders would expect us to also, is that we’ll look at everything and we’ll question ourselves and try and figure out if it’s the right move and we’ll always hold it though against what our own option is against purchasing our own stock.

Lucas Pipes: Makes sense. All right. Well, I appreciate it. Paul continued best of luck.

Paul Lang: Thank you, Lucas.

Operator: This concludes our question and answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Paul Lang for closing remarks.

Paul Lang: I want to thank you again, for your interest in Arch. As I noted earlier, we remain sharply focused on delivering operational excellence. We’re in the process of making significant progress with our metallurgical portfolio, and expect a nearly 20% increase in coking coal volumes in 2023 versus 2022. I think just as importantly we expect that momentum to continue with an anticipated step up in 2024, and yet another change in 2025. In short, we remain optimistic about Arch’s long term outlook, as well as the company’s potential to reward shareholders in a substantial way through our capital return program. With that operator, we will conclude the call and we look forward to reporting the group in February. Stay safe and healthy everyone.

Operator: The conference is now concluded. Thank you for attending today’s presentation. You may now disconnect.

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