Yaron Kinar: Because I think you’ve been running at kind of mid-90s. So where is that improvement coming from, is it mostly just better rates and in risk selection?
Marc Grandisson: Well, we’re running — we’re running about 90 now, and I think that we still continue to see improvement in pricing. So that should help us get there somehow.
Operator: Our next question comes from the line of Ryan Tunis with Autonomous.
Ryan Tunis: First question, I guess following up on Tracy. Could you give us some indication of, I guess, how you’re viewing your overall cat budget this year relative to ’21 based on what you saw with 1/1 renewals? Should we expect to kind of the expected cat ratio to be higher?
Francois Morin: The cat ratio or cat? I mean, in terms of
Marc Grandisson: Cat load.
Francois Morin: Dollars of cap, yes, we think will go up. No question. We’ve been targeting, we’re targeting — I mean our cat load in ’22 was, call it, $80 million a quarter. Now it’s probably between $100 million and $120 million for the first quarter of ’23 based on what we wrote, right? And we’ll see how that develops for the rest of the year. I mean, depending on how the 41, 61, 71 renewals, how those kind of materialize, there is, I’d say, a good probability that it will keep going up throughout the year. But based on the in-force portfolio that we have currently for the first quarter, I mean, that’s kind of how we see the exposure to cat losses.
Ryan Tunis: And then I’d one for Marc, I guess, on the man-made cat side, which isn’t something we’ve talked about too much. But I would think that’s one of the better markets right now on the reinsurance side. And I guess just trying to size that, whether or not maybe some of the rate increases post Ukraine, if that can move the needle relative to property capital, just looking at your marine and aviation premium, it’s actually pretty chunky relative to property cat. So if you could just give us some indication of can that move the needle, is that something that we should be paying more attention to in terms of the markets you’re seeing that are getting incremental firming that could help Arch?
Marc Grandisson: I think the one thing with an event such as Ukraine, which is a war event, there’s actually a specific market for those kinds of risks. So it’s not like it’s included part of the overall coverages for cat or whatever else out there. There was some — there definitely is a result of that event in attempt to exclude a lot of these war events and bring them back into the proper — aviation war, on marine war market, for instance. So yes, there is a lot of — obviously, a lot of activity there, a lot of rate increases there. We’re participating in there, but those markets are to begin with pretty small. So that’s why I think you’ll see some improvement, but it may not be necessarily enough to move the needle for the industry, even though it’s a very, very healthy proposition that rates have gone through the roof as you can appreciate for the right reasons in those types of business.
