Arch Capital Group Ltd. (NASDAQ:ACGL) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

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Francois Morin: I’d like to think we got room to grow. But you’re right, I think the biggest probably opportunity is NII, just with the leverage and the correction or the increase in interest rates we saw last year. I think that’s going to take still a little bit of time to show up in the numbers. But as we look forward over the next 12 to 24 months, I’d like to think that, that will — there’s leverage there that we can show up in the numbers. In terms of the segment’s results, I think they can all — mortgages, again, the reported results, I mean significant reserve releases, which certainly helped the bottom line and the ROEs that are reported. But we think the segments, the fundamentals underlying each of the three segments are still very good and they can actually still deliver very healthy results.

Yaron Kinar: And then my second question, just looking at the insurance business, it sounds like you think that there maybe some inflection to accelerating growth again in ’23. Can you maybe help us think about the impact of the reinsurance market, kind of available capacity, cost of reinsurance, how that plays into the potential growth that you see for net premiums written in ’23 in insurance?

Marc Grandisson: Great question, Yaron, because I think what we’re going to see through ’23 is a recognition. I mean it’s already there but it’s probably really coming home and the rules for us as a saving company right on the insurance line and our clients and ceding companies that more needs to be charged to the insurers that they can in turn pay the reinsurer they need to buy. Even if they went there, right, we heard that a lot of increasing retention, there’s still more volatility that’s absorbed by those insurance carriers, which should lead to, again, needing a higher rate, everything else being equal. So I think what we’re seeing is — what we’ll see is gradually — and again, on the reinsurance sectors, Yaron, you can just renew business 1/1 and everything changes on a dime, right, on one stroke of the pen.

On the insurance side, it take 12 month period to transition and transform and then reprice the whole business. So that’s what I think we’re going to be seeing, that’s why I’m also fairly optimistic is because we’re going to have that repricing occurring throughout 2023 and beyond. And alongside with those, between all of us here, the terms and conditions are also going to be on the table, right, on the docket for companies to present to find a way to not curtail but find a way to have a better risk sharing with their insurers when it comes down to other policy. So I guess for that reason that’s what underlies is that sticker shock, not sticker shock, but good increase in reinsurance at the beginning of the year that we’ll have to filter through all the plans and budgeting for all the insurance companies, including ourselves as we go forward in ’23.

So it’s going to be a slow motion but it’s going to happen, that’s why I’m optimistic.

Yaron Kinar: And I apologize, I’m going to try and sneak one more in here. A clarification, when you talked about kind of targeting low 90s, high 80s combined ratio, was that a reported combined ratio in the insurance segment?

Marc Grandisson: That’s policy year target effective it’s just expected, right, plus or minus, as you know, in our space, is volatility around the expected numbers, but this is long term expected.

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