We recently compiled a list of the 10 Best Breakout Stocks To Invest In Right Now. In this article, we are going to take a look at where Arch Capital Group Ltd. (NASDAQ:ACGL) stands against the other breakout stocks.
Since 1950, the S&P 500 has posted at least a 15% gain through September on 17 occasions. In those years, the index rose a median of 5.4% in the fourth quarter and ended the year with gains in all but three instances, according to Keith Lerner, co-chief investment officer at Truist Advisory Services. Strong gains in U.S. stocks this year suggest a positive outlook for the remainder of 2024, if historical trends hold.
The S&P 500 is currently up 20% year-to-date, nearing a record high and poised for its best January-to-September performance since 1997. Optimism around a potential ‘soft landing’ has fueled this rally, alongside a recent 50 basis point rate cut by the central bank.
Overall, inflation in the U.S. is steadily nearing the Federal Reserve’s 2% annual target. Analysts suggest that the ongoing moderation in consumer prices could prompt further interest rate cuts to prevent a spike in unemployment. The personal consumption expenditures price index, a key inflation measure monitored by the Fed, increased by just 0.1% in the past month. This brings the 12-month inflation rate to 2.2%, down from 2.5% in July, marking its lowest level since February 2021. Moreover, Fed officials have seem to have shifted their focus from combating inflation to prioritizing support for a labor market showing signs of slowing. During their recent meeting, policymakers signaled the possibility of a half-percentage-point cut this year, followed by a full-point reduction in 2025.
That said, the current financial landscape reflects the Fed’s cautious strategy to engineer a soft landing for the economy—curbing inflation without inducing a recession. Gregory Daco, Chief Economist at EY-Parthenon, observes that the U.S. economy is gradually decelerating, with both consumers and businesses adopting more cautious spending behaviors due to a tightening labor market and rising costs. Although consumer spending hasn’t seen a sharp decline, Daco suggests that slower growth in disposable income could lead to more subdued spending in 2025. He projects consumer spending growth to slow to an average of 2.5% in Q4 2024, dropping further to 2% in 2025.
On another front, Mark Spitznagel, Chief Investment Officer and founder of Universa, believes the U.S. is on the brink of a significant downturn due to the high levels of debt and sustained high interest rates. “The clock is ticking, and we are entering black swan territory,” he told Reuters, warning that the recent “disinversion” of a key segment of the U.S. Treasury yield curve—a crucial recession indicator—signals an impending sharp downturn. Spitznagel anticipates a recession could hit as early as this year, prompting the Fed to slash rates aggressively from the current 4.75%-5% range and potentially returning to quantitative easing (QE), or bond buying.
Our Methodology
To compile our list of the best breakout stocks, we analyzed the holdings of the IBD Breakout Opportunities ETF and ranked them based on the number of hedge funds that initiated long positions in Q2 2024. From this group, we identified the top breakout stocks that are the most widely held by hedge funds.
At Insider Monkey, we are obsessed with the stocks that hedge funds pile into. The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter’s strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 275% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 150 percentage points (see more details here).
A close-up image of an insurance policy with hands standing firmly on top, conveying security.
Arch Capital Group Ltd. (NASDAQ:ACGL)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 37
Arch Capital Group Ltd. (NASDAQ:ACGL), headquartered in Bermuda, provides insurance, reinsurance, and mortgage insurance globally, with a specialization in niche areas of the insurance market that deal with complex and unique risks.
In the second quarter of 2024, Arch Capital Group Ltd. (NASDAQ:ACGL) delivered outstanding results, reporting operating earnings per share of $2.57, far exceeding analyst expectations of $2.09 and consensus estimates of $2.21. This strong performance was attributed to favorable reserve development, higher-than-expected net investment income (NII), and improved underwriting results. The company’s book value also saw a robust sequential growth of 7%, reaching $52.75, showcasing its financial stability.
Analysts have adjusted their price targets for ACGL following these results. Citi initiated coverage with a Neutral rating and a $114 price target, while Roth/MKM raised their target to $125. On the other hand, BMO Capital Markets set a target of $98, introducing a 2026 EPS estimate of $9.76, while Keefe, Bruyette & Woods increased their target to $121 and revised their EPS projections for 2024 and 2025 to $8.55 and $9.30, respectively.
In the second quarter of 2024, 37 hedge funds held stakes in Arch Capital Group Ltd. (NASDAQ:ACGL), with total holdings valued at $1.35 billion. Egerton Capital Limited emerged as the largest shareholder, holding a stake worth $326.2 million as of June 30.
Overall ACGL ranks 8th on our list of the breakout stocks to invest in. While we recognize the potential of ACGL as an investment, we believe certain deeply undervalued AI stocks offer greater prospects for higher returns in a shorter period. If you’re seeking an AI stock with even more promise than ACGL and trading at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.
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Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey.
