So really the destock that we started to see in Q3 and again classified in Q4 put a lot of pressure on the apparent steel consumption in the second half of 2022. So that should normalize, and we should see apparent steel consumption getting much closer now than to be real demand, that we expect to continue to be moving sideways, so that’s one. I think another very important element that we can point out is the energy costs in Europe continue to come down, continue to normalize. So as a result our order books are improving. We see that and again that’s going to the non-occurrence of the very strong destock of Q4. So trying to put all this together, I would maybe start with shipment. So our expectation is see shipments improving in Q1, in most €“ in all of our regions.
Appliances as you know, because prices continue to decline during quarter four and because of lands, our prices, we expect will continue to be affected in quarter one. But as we know, prices have since started to move up quite significantly, so that it looks good for our second quarter. So prices, we discussed volumes up. Cost, we expect costs to continue to come down, even though we are seeing more recently of course €“ I don’t know price, the coal price is moving up. We will not see so much of an impact in quarter one because of the weighted average costing. So those are the moving parts. So I think as we start the year, I think we are cautiously optimistic. We have guided for apparent steel consumption for the year to be up 2% to 3% and we are guiding for 5% improvements in our shipments for the year.
I will stop here. Aditya see if you can have any follow-ups. Thank you.
Aditya Mittal : Thank you, Genuino. Maybe just a few quick points to add. So I think Genuino went into a lot of details, so I appreciate that. Overall, I know you asked, do you see the worst behind us and I think we do. So when we look forward, we think fourth quarter was the lowest point in the current cycle. So we expect Q1 and going forward, the business to perform better. The apparent steel consumption numbers match, almost the real demand numbers of the forecast in the core markets. So there’s also a good development on the real demand side. Thank you.
Alain Gabriel: Thank you very much.
Daniel Fairclough: Thanks, Alain. So we’ll move now to our next question from Tristan, at BNP Paribas Exane. Go ahead Tristan.
Tristan Gresser: Yes hi! Thank you for taking my question. Maybe if you could shed some light under the full year volume guidance. You mentioned that the guidance implied no change in Ukraine. So could you give us a sense of the current output levels at the moment? And is it fair to assume that this is the base case scenario in which your free cash flow guidance is based on.
Aditya Mittal: Thank you for the question. We have not really provided free cash flow guidance. We have provided shipment guidance, and we expect our shipments to build 5% year-on-year, and this obviously includes Ukraine. In terms of Ukraine, I think first of all, I must say that our people have been absolutely heroic. They had been maintaining the operation. They had been defending themselves and are on our facility, and we are all extremely proud of them, and we really applaud everything that they are doing on a daily basis. The focus of our people has been to maintain, maintain our assets, maintain its integrity. We are in fact in critical €“ the critical implication of that is that we are maintaining our opportunity to produce steel in the future.
