ArcelorMittal S.A. (NYSE:MT) Q3 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Genuino Christino: Well, I think a lot of the investments that were made as a result of the higher prices, selling prices, raw material prices. And in terms of volumes, quantities are relatively limited, Patrick. So my expectation is, given where prices are and my expectation is that we should be able to recover a large majority to the $10 billion as we move as we move into 2023 and beyond.

Patrick Mann: Got it. Thank you. Those are my questions. Thanks.

Genuino Christino: Thank you.

Operator: Thanks, Patrick. So we’ll move now to Tom at Barclays.

Tom Zhang: Good afternoon, guys. Thanks very much for taking our questions. The first one, just a sort of slight follow-up to Patrick, on the inventory write-downs. I’m slightly surprised that there weren’t any taken in — especially the US, but to an extent, also ASUS in Brazil, given spot prices have been pretty weak in those areas as well. Is that a risk of further write-downs to come in Q4, or were those just not large enough for you to report as an exceptional item and actually those are included in the EBITDA numbers. That’s my first question.

Genuino Christino: So I think that’s a good question, and I think it shows the change, because if you look back in previous cycles, when we also had to take rebel inventories, you’re right, at that point in time, we had also large amounts of revaluation in NAFTA, primarily because of oUS business that, as you know, we sold, if you look at the profitability of the businesses in NAFTA in Q3, you see that it’s different from what we enjoyed in Europe, in Brazil as well. And we have to — I hope it’s clear that in Europe, that’s really where you have the very high energy costs. So costs are higher you don’t really have the same issues in some other parts of the world. So that’s why you really see this being in Europe and not in some other parts of the group.

Can we have more right now this is our best estimate, right? So we would need to record more write-downs only to the extent that selling prices continue to move down. So we’ll see. But for now, this is our best estimate.

Tom Zhang: Right. Okay. So there might be some in there, but it’s not reported as exceptional, because if I sort of look at ASUs, for example, I see a similar issue, but €“ in any case, maybe just moving on to the US business. I mean, you mentioned earlier, you see volumes stable in all areas except Europe into Q4, which is kind of surprising from my side, if I look at your slides, let’s say, US flat apparent fuel consumption down 10% year-on-year for H2. And I mean, your Q3 shipments were still okay up a little bit year-on-year. So, that my very rough math implies sort of down 15% to 20% decline in NAFTA shipments for Q4, which is obviously not what you were saying earlier. I mean, are you taking market share from other mills in €“

Genuino Christino: Perhaps just to clarify. So, when I say relatively stable, saying quarter-on-quarter…

Tom Zhang: Yes.

Genuino Christino: Right. So quarter-on-quarter, our expectations that shipments in NAFTA should be relatively stable. Just keep in mind that we have different businesses in NAFTA. So we have our Mexican operations, Canadian operations, right? So our expectation is relatively stable volumes there as it is also the case in Brazil and also in CIS.

Tom Zhang: Right. But if I just say, stable NAFTA shipments in Q4, that means it’s up 4% year-on-year, and you’re saying the US will be down 10% in terms of steel consumption. So is that you taking market share, or are you saying Canada and Mexico is going to be stronger? How do I fit those two statements together?