Apartment Income REIT Corp. (NYSE:AIRC) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

And so, if you look at our weighted average interest rate as of the third quarter, that should give you a pretty good proxy as to what to expect for next year with one caveat that I’d call out, and that’s the $79 million of debt that’s associated with our Virginia joint venture that’s currently capped at 5.4%. That cap expires in January, so will be subject to higher rates next year on that $80 million of debt.

John Kim: Just one quick follow-up. How should we be thinking about run rate FFO? Is that just FFO less onetime items, or is it like an earn-in concept? How do we read this?

Paul Beldin: John, a run rate FFO we think would be recurring normalized, items that would be relatively consistent year-over-year. There’s always some volatility in the year because the business changes and evolves. And so, there’s some volatility in nonrecurring type items. We just wanted to draw attention to what’s recurring and enduring.

Terry Considine: John, I want — it’s Terry. I want to just underline what Paul just said. The focus of AIR and the whole team here is on free cash flow and recurring free cash flow. And that’s what we think is the most important driver of value. That said, the business gives rise to nonrecurring income and all cash income, even if nonrecurring is worth having. And so, we’re going to keep getting it and reporting it, but we’re also going to keep directing to you towards the recurring free cash flow, which we think is the more fundamental.

Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Haendel St. Juste from Mizuho.

Haendel St. Juste: So, I guess, you guys touched on my — the acceleration question in the 4Q in your response to John. So maybe, Keith, can you talk about the pricing power and expectations into next year from your better performing markets here? Like Miami, [indiscernible] and SoCal versus some of your weaker markets, Philly and San Fran. And where are you offering concessions in the portfolio today?

Keith Kimmel: Haendel, I missed the last part. You said where my offering? What was the last question?

Haendel St. Juste: Are you offering concessions in the portfolio today?

Keith Kimmel: Okay. Yes. So I think, Handel, the first thing is that the talk about the seasonal deceleration. And what I really want to emphasize is that we’re returning back to a normal seasonal pattern. And what we’re seeing — let me point you to 2018 and 2019, which was pre-COVID. And when we look at the fourth — the third quarter to the fourth quarter in those periods, we saw somewhere between 200 and 280 basis points of deceleration in new lease rates. And so, when we look at where we’re at today, we’re inside that window of a very similar deceleration that we would have seen pre-COVID. So we’ve had this period of time where going from the third quarter to the fourth quarter had had this acceleration for a lot of different factors.

But what we’re seeing is much more akin to what is typical. So, that’s the first thing I’d point to. The second thing I’d say is that Paul pointed this out, which is, in the fourth quarter, we do a lot less business in our model. The majority of our business happens between May and September, which is really our peak leasing season. That’s where the majority of that activity happens and we get the best earn-in from that. And so the deceleration is not something that I want to have a lot of exercise around because it’s really about making peak season and then building into next year. As we look into next year, I don’t want to get ahead of myself about who’s going to do what. But one of the markets you pointed out that has been a tough one is Northern California.