Aon plc (NYSE:AON) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

We have – never had more conviction about each of those three categories and on our delivery knows and will continue to deliver those. And the addition of NFP is only going to strengthen our free cash flow profile over time. So for us, we’re always going to be cautious in our approach, but resolute and we feel very good about the momentum going into 2024.

Meyer Shields: Okay. That’s very helpful. Thank you. Second question, when we look at the strong organic growth in reinsurance. Looking at the breakdown. I think you talked about pretty facultative and investment banking. Is that component of revenues positive, or negative to overall margin?

Christa Davies: So reinsurance is a similar margin business to all of our businesses, which is why we operate Aon as one segment Meyer. And one of the things we would say, part of our Aon United strategy is, we are bringing together a lot of the back-office technology, operations and shared service functions into Aon Business Services, which is enabling our focus on common and shared operations, technology platforms at scale, and then product innovation at-scale. And so, we’re really operating more-and-more the firm in one segment with risk capital, human capital, enterprise client and Aon Business Services.

Greg Case: And Meyer, this is Greg, this is really a great question and really work point of high emphasis. This connectivity that Christa is describing risk capital, human capital connected through, enterprise client, delivered an amplified by Aon Business Services, a big deal. Our ability to continue to drive margin improvement as we did this year with lots of investments into the business is high. And the exciting piece is connectivity on Aon Business Services, 15,000 colleagues working this interconnected into the business, is not just continued margin improvement, which you saw, but also the capability to really create outcomes that really drive clients innovation options that they didn’t have before as well as service enhancements, they didn’t have before.

And so, these pieces all come together to sort create this integrated view, which really give us great confidence around not only top-line growth, but also margin improvement and the implications on free cash flow.

Meyer Shields: Okay, fantastic. Thank you so much.

Operator: Our next question is from the line of Charlie Lederer with Citi. Please proceed with your questions.

Charlie Lederer: Hi, thanks. Good morning. I guess, first question, as we’ve seen some reserving issues in casualty and financial lines across the industry. Wondering if this were to become a more widespread issue for the industry. Could that impact Aon’s profit commissions and that material enough that it would impact your margins are organic growth near-term?

Greg Case: So I’ll say, we don’t do the profit commission. So that’s not true for us. And so that’s not in our portfolio. But I would say in terms of what’s happening in that marketplace, I do think it does reflect some pressure that the insurers are seeing, especially on the casualty side. I would say on the financial line side, it’s probably more a question of just supply and demand where a lot of new capital into the market as company. [technical difficulty] yes you just seeing price competition versus any prior loss problems. But I think the casualty piece with medical inflation they call it social inflation, is affecting their prior reserves. So, but it will not have an impact on us from that perspective.

Charlie Lederer: Got it, thanks. And then on the commercial risk segments. Just wondering it as deal volumes come back eventually, does that carry a higher margin where that would help your margins, as that becomes a larger proportion of the mix again?

Greg Case: Again. I would just reinforce the point Charlie around sort of as Christa described overall margin, our ability to sort of drive margin across the firm. We’ve got a very long track-record of being able to do that over the last decade plus. And we have enhanced our ability to do that with Aon Business Services. And so, we are excited about adding growth as it also helps us deliver on margin. You don’t see us really make that trade-off. We really do both. And in the profile is ahead of us to do exactly that. And we would absolutely see as our 3×3 plan fits together, but M&A is going to be and IPO is going to be a fundamental part of that, and we’re excited to have that growth come back.

Charlie Lederer: Got it, thank you guys.

Operator: Thank you. Our last question comes from the line of Jimmy Bhullar with JPMorgan. Please proceed with your question.

Jimmy Bhullar: Great, thanks. I just wanted to follow-up on your comments around the expected timing of the close of the NFP deal. Is mid-2025, what do you realistically think the deal will close, or is it just more given the uncertainty, you don’t want to over promise. Because it seems like it’s a long-lead time for a deal that really, in my view, doesn’t entail a lot of antitrust or other issues, given the market focus of NFP, but…?

Christa Davies: Thanks so much for the question. And we agree, we operate in very different segments, with very limited overlap and we fully expect to close in mid ’24, we have modeled the deal very conservatively with a mid ’25 close. And that is off being conservative financially.