Aon plc (NYSE:AON) Q2 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

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So we’re getting to an equilibrium around pricing of property cat. Certainly, as you go into the 1/1 renewals in 5 months, there’ll be talk of inflation, there’ll be talk of what happens over the hurricane season in the summer and other events. But I do think that as the market has moved, it has found an equilibrium in property cat as well as on the casualty side of the business.

Operator: Next question is coming from the line of David Motemaden with Evercore ISI. Please proceed with your question.

David Motemaden: Just had a follow-up question on commercial risk. You guys spoke about this a couple of quarters ago, I believe it was the fourth quarter, you said the capital markets activity had a 5-point drag on the organic growth in commercial risk. Could you size how much of a drag that had on organic growth in commercial risk this quarter?

Christa Davies: So we have not disclosed that detail. We did, as you mentioned, disclosed it in Q4 and we haven’t disclosed it going forward. What I can say is we’re the leader in the space, and we’re incredibly excited about our capabilities, as Greg and Eric have described. and this having a real impact on our business. But we’re continuing to invest in it because we know as M&A volume comes back, this business is incredibly well positioned to do fantastically well.

Greg Case: And David, we continue to reinforce literally the exact guidance we had before. And as we think about where we were, they look greater for the year overall for the business, even in the face of this challenge that Christa described.

David Motemaden: And also just to clarify, so tough comps in this business in the second half of ’22 — or I guess the comps are definitely easier. I think second half of ’22 is very depressed. So — is it that you guys — you guys aren’t expecting it to be down again off of that depressed base, but it’s more just you don’t see a recovery off of that depressed base? Is that the right way to put it?

Greg Case: It’s literally as simple as you almost listen to the investment bank calls. We can talk to the CEOs of those divisions. As that activity comes back, we are incredibly well positioned, not just in the core areas we’ve done before, but also with the broader commercial applications, as Eric described before. So we’ve just gotten stronger. Literally as the transactions come back and the volume comes back, we’re there. And so you can predict as well as anyone. All we’re trying to do is be clear.

David Motemaden: And then just on the continued investment in tech and talent, and it also sounds like even with the increased outlook on CapEx for the year, it’s going to tick down in the back half of the year. And I’m just trying to just compare that to the continued investment in talent that it sounds like you guys are making. Should I take that to mean that more of the expenses are going to be coming through OpEx, instead of running through CapEx and then there could be a little bit more of a headwind to margin improvement in the second half.

Christa Davies: So what we really said was we’ve given guidance on CapEx, $220 million to $250 million. Yes, you’re absolutely right. CapEx is a little slight loaded with how the projects worked out this year. But we do think about it over the course of a full year, CapEx, $220 million to $250 million for 2023. In terms of margin expansion, we expect full year margin expansion. We are on track for mid-single-digit organic — mid-single digit or greater organic revenue growth, margin expansion for the full year and double-digit free cash flow growth. And so yes, things are pattening slightly more in the first half in terms of some expense growth and CapEx growth. But really, you should think about these things over the course of the full year.

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