We recently published a list of Top 10 AI Stocks to Watch After Latest Earnings and Analyst Ratings. Since Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) ranks 2nd on the list, it deserves a deeper look.
Tom Lee, Fundstrat Global Advisors co-founder, said while talking to CNBC in a latest program that the next few weeks until the US election would be “confusing” for many since no one could say anything with conviction about who is going to be in the White House.
Lee said that the market is going to trade “well” into the upcoming Fed meeting where he expects “some” rate cuts amid the labor market needing support and positive inflation data. Asked whether he expects a 25bps rate cut or a 50bps cut, Lee said:
“ A 25 or 50 can have both hawkish or dovish implications so I think it’s ultimately whether Fed Chair Powell comes across as this is the start of a cycle they are confident that we are moving back towards neutral and whatever number they make is quite dovish and positive but if it seems like that it’s dragging along the FOMC members and then there is even concerns about hard landing then I think the market can view anything they do as negative,” Lee said.
However, Lee said he believes the outcome would be positive.
For this article, we chose the top 10 buzzing AI stocks on the back of the latest earnings and analyst ratings. With each company, we have mentioned the number of hedge fund investors. Why are we interested in the stocks that hedge funds pile into? The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter’s strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 275% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 150 percentage points (see more details here).
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Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL)
Number of Hedge Fund Investors: 184
Barclays recently published a list of stocks that could be impacted if Donald Trump comes to power and implements his tariffs plan against China. Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) was part of the list. Barclays said it chose these stocks “based on a bottom-up approach, using factual input on global supply chain exposure.”
Apple Inc’s (NASDAQ:AAPL) iPhone event went more or less as expected and all eyes are now on pre-order data and actual numbers on the new iPhone. A survey by US AlphaWise showed about 60% of customers planning to upgrade their iPhone said Apple Intelligence is a key part of the rationale behind the upgrade.
Almost all bull cases around Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) are based on the assumption that millions of people would upgrade their iPhones mainly due to AI. However, Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) has been seeing a long-term decline in mobile carrier upgrade rates, especially postpaid, for several years. This suggests that people are holding onto their devices longer, likely due to economic factors, satisfaction with current technology, or a lack of exciting new features in recent models. This trend isn’t great for Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL). Can Apple Intelligence break this trend? We’ll find out soon.
However, the assumption that we will see a huge upgrade cycle of iPhone just because of AI is big and comes with a lot of risks. Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) trades at a forward PE multiple of around 35x, well above its 5-year average of nearly 27x. Its expected EPS forward long-term growth rate of 10.39% does not justify its valuation, especially with the iPhone upgrade cycle assumption. Adjusting for this growth results in a forward PEG ratio of 3.33, significantly higher than its 5-year average of 2.38.
Baron Technology Fund stated the following regarding Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) in its Q2 2024 investor letter:
“The Fund’s chief relative detractor was Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL), even though it was a meaningful contributor to absolute performance, as we added to our Apple position significantly during the period. We bought Apple well, but in 20/20 hindsight we didn’t buy enough. Because Apple has an oversized weight in the Benchmark (its average weight was 15.7% for the period), when Apple’s stock outperforms (it appreciated 23.0%), it has generally been a headwind to relative performance. Our Apple underweight accounted for 33% of our relative underperformance for the period.
This quarter we increased the size of our position in Apple Inc., a leading technology company known for its innovative consumer electronics products like the iPhone, MacBook, iPad, and Apple Watch. Apple is a leader across its categories and geographies, with a growing installed base that now exceeds 2 billion devices globally. The company’s attached services – including the App Store, iCloud, Apple TV+, Apple Music, and Apple Pay – provide a higher margin, recurring revenue stream that both enhances the value proposition for its hardware products and improves the financial profile. Apple now has well over 1 billion subscribers paying for these services, more than double the number it had just 4 years ago. The increasing services mix has led to healthy operating margin improvement, providing more free cash flow for Apple to reinvest in the business and to distribute to shareholders. Throughout its 48-year history, Apple has successfully navigated and capitalized on major technological shifts, from PCs to mobile to cloud computing. We believe the company’s leading brand and device ecosystem position it to do equally well in the AI age, and this was the driver of our decision to re-invest. “Apple Intelligence” – the AI strategy unveiled at Apple’s recent Worldwide Developer Conference – leverages on-device AI and integrations with tools like ChatGPT to enhance user experiences across its ecosystem. The AI suite enables users to create new images, summarize and generate text, and use Siri to perform actions across their mobile applications, all while maintaining user privacy and security. We think Apple Intelligence can drive accelerated product upgrade cycles and higher demand for Apple services. The combination of growth re-acceleration, increasing services contribution, and thoughtful capital allocation should continue driving long-term shareholder value.”
Overall, Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) ranks 2nd on Insider Monkey’s list titled Top 10 AI Stocks to Watch After Latest Earnings and Analyst Ratings. While we acknowledge the potential of Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL), our conviction lies in the belief that AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns, and doing so within a shorter timeframe. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than AAPL but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.
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Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey.
