We recently published a list of Top 10 Stocks to Watch as AI Trade Dynamics Change. In this article, we are going to take a look at where NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) stands against other top stocks to watch as AI trade dynamics change.
Aswath Damodaran from NYU Stern School of Business said in a recent program on CNBC that AI “buzzwords” are not boosting the market anymore as investors grow more concerned about capital spending.
“I’ve said about data centers we’ve gotten way ahead of the game. I mean, the AI product and service business, which ultimately is what has to pay for all of this, has not taken off in any substantial way. I’m hard-pressed to think about any company making significant money from the AI product and service business.”
Damodaran said that the “sobering” of the AI trade started in September last year and the DeepSeek breakthrough in China also had an impact on the industry.
“It’s part of, I think, what you see almost every buzzword in history in the last four decades. I call these the ‘bar mitzvah moment,’ where people wake up and say, ‘Okay, there’s a lot of promise here, but show me something that I can hang my hat on.’”
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For this article, we picked 10 stocks Wall Street analysts have been talking about lately. With each stock, we have mentioned the number of hedge fund investors. Why are we interested in the stocks that hedge funds pile into? The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter’s strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 373.4% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 218 percentage points (see more details here).
NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:NVDA)
Number of Hedge Fund Investors: 193
Paul Hickey, Bespoke co-founder, said in a latest program on CNBC that investors sell NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:NVDA) shares despite positive statements from the company. The analyst believes that until this trend changes, the stock will remain volatile.
“I think in Nvidia, you know, could be the greatest thing since sliced bread. Jensen can say whatever he wants, but the most important thing, as we said when I was on the day they reported earnings, is the reaction to the news. If you see what happened in Nvidia today, the stock peaked right at 1:00 and investors sold into the news there. That’s been happening with every rally in Nvidia over the last six months, and until that pattern changes, it doesn’t matter what they say. Investors are selling into any strength in the stock. So, I think in that respect, for the stock itself, that’s not a great sign.”
The market will keep punishing Nvidia for not coming up to its gigantic (and sometimes unrealistic) growth expectations. About 50% of the company’s revenue comes from large cloud providers, which are rethinking their plans amid the DeepSeek launch and looking for low-cost chips. Nvidia’s Q1 guidance shows a 9.4% QoQ revenue growth, down from the previous 12% QoQ growth. Its adjusted margin is expected to be down substantially as well to 71%. The market does not like it when Nvidia fails to post a strong quarterly beat. The stock will remain under pressure in the coming quarters when the company reports unimpressive growth.
Nvidia is facing challenges at several levels. Competition is one of them. Major competitors like Apple, Qualcomm, and AMD are vying for TSMC’s 3nm capacity, which could limit Nvidia’s access to these chips. Why? Because Nvidia also uses TSMC’s 3nm process nodes. Nvidia is also facing direct competition from other giants that are deciding to make their own chips. Amazon, with its Trainium2 AI chips, offers alternatives. Trainium2 chips could provide cost savings and superior computational power, which could shift AI workloads away from Nvidia’s offerings. Apple is reportedly working with Broadcom to develop an AI server processor. Intel is also trying hard to get back into the game with Jaguar Shores GPU, set to be produced on its 18A or 14A node.
Guinness Global Innovators stated the following regarding NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) in its Q4 2024 investor letter:
“For a second year running, NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) was the Fund’s top performing stock, delivering a stellar return of +177.7% over the year. Since the beginning of last year, Nvidia’s ‘Hopper’ GPUs have been at the centre of exploding demand for chips powerful and efficient enough to facilitate the energy intensive requirements of AI processes within datacentres. Initially possessing over 95% of market share in these types of chips, Nvidia have been quick to entrench their position as the technological leader in the space, launching the successor to the current ‘Hopper’ GPU in March, Blackwell, inhibiting the likes of AMD and Intel making meaningful inroads in taking share of the fast-growing market. Compared to the previous iteration (Hopper) which is continuing to fuel Nvidia’s extreme revenue growth, the Blackwell chip is twice as powerful for training AI models and has 5 times the capability when it comes to “inference” (the speed at which AI models respond to queries). Throughout the year, Nvidia’s financial performance has remained resilient. Quarterly revenues hit $35.1 billion in their most recent quarter, beating consensus expectations by 6% and representing a +94% year-over-year increase. Additionally, Nvidia’s data centre segment, driven by the Hopper (H100) chip, grew fivefold over the past year, underscoring the sustained demand for advanced AI infrastructure. The H100 chip, priced at around $40,000, continues to see significant adoption due to its ability to enhance AI model training efficiency while lowering overall costs. This growth is expected to continue as companies invest in upgrading existing data centres and building new ones, with Nvidia well-positioned to capture a significant share of the estimated $2 trillion market opportunity over the next five years. There have been some concerns over Blackwell production delays causing share price volatility however, Nvidia has recovered swiftly, driven by positive earnings results through the year and assurances from management regarding future supply. Additionally, the release of the H200 chip promises to extend Nvidia’s technological leadership, ensuring continued momentum into 2025. While Nvidia’s valuation remains a topic of debate, the stock is not at a significant premium to history, and it still appears reasonable given its dominant market position, innovative prowess, and exposure to long-term secular growth trends in AI, cloud computing, and data infrastructure. As a result, Nvidia remains well-positioned to deliver sustained outperformance over the long term, making it a cornerstone of growth-oriented portfolios.”
Overall, NVDA ranks 3rd on our list of top stocks to watch as AI trade dynamics change. While we acknowledge the potential of NVDA, our conviction lies in the belief that under the radar AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns, and doing so within a shorter time frame. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than NVDA but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.
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Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey.
