American Homes 4 Rent (NYSE:AMH) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

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So, it’s about a six to nine-month time period. So, what we delivered in the fourth quarter of this year would have been a peak pricing. That’s the stuff that was contracted for in May of this year. What we will see going into 2023 is benefits on vertical cost scale in over the year. land and land development are already baked in. Those happened in prior years. So, the delivery this year will not be in the high 6%s or low 7%s or 7%. They will be 5.5% scaling up to 6% throughout the year. They will get benefit over time of vertical development pricing benefits, but it takes time for those to factor in. So, the ones that we deliver at the end of the year will be much greater. So, that — I just want to make sure that we don’t expect that deliveries that we are doing tomorrow are based on what we’re underwriting today.

What we’re underwriting today is based on the capital that we employ today and we will deliver those probably in 2025. One last point your question, Haendel, is that the deliveries that we’re doing today, the ones that are 5.5% to 6%, that capital is in the bank. So, we raised that capital when we made the investment decisions, at least the equity component of capital. So, there is some match funding that occurred.

Operator: Our next question comes from Adam Kramer with Morgan Stanley. Please proceed with your question.

Adam Kramer: Hey guys, thanks for the question. I just wanted to ask about maybe where lost the lease stands today look certainly recognize it’s probably not nearly as kind of robust as it was at points in 2022. I’m wondering where off-these stands today? I think kind of a related question is, is maybe just kind of on the sequential trends in market rents for new lease growth, whether it’s 4Q into January, 4Q into January into February, but wondering just kind of given normal seasonal impacts, which I think returned in the fourth quarter, what are kind of the sequential trends in market rent growth that you guys are seeing?

Bryan Smith: Hi Adam, thanks for the question. This is Bryan. We’re estimating our loss to lease to be in the 5% to 6% range today. And in terms of our expectations for new lease growth, we had a really good start to the year. We see — we had a lot of pricing power, we’re fully occupied and great demand. I’m hoping that, that continues. What we’ve contemplated in our guide is a moderation off of the 7%s that we started with finishing the first quarter on re-leasing around 7%. And then a graduate moderation towards the back half of the year. We’re going to do our best to continue to push those new lease rates. I’m hoping that demand continues to stay as strong. So, I’m open to beat that, but that’s the expectation right now from a conservative perspective.

Adam Kramer: Great. That’s really helpful. Thanks Bryan. Just on this kind of the JV kind of side of things. Look, I know you kind of expanded this relationship with JPMorgan in that group. But just wondering overall kind of the desire or ability to kind of go further down the JV path. Is that something that you’re thinking about looking at? Are there opportunities there or maybe less so?

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