American Homes 4 Rent (NYSE:AMH) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

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An example is the improvements that we’re making in the logistics program ties in with how we communicate that — with the resident, which ties in with our communications initiative. So, we’re constantly innovating. The technology piece is a very important part. The Resident 360 is in direct response to what our residents are asking for. So, we didn’t want to wait on it. There’s really no better time than to start now.

Sam Choe: Got it. That’s really helpful color. And then just looking at your January metrics that you provided, I mean, it does show a lot of resiliency. I guess when I’m thinking about the same-store revenue guide, what kind of economic assumptions did you make in getting to the high and lows for that range?

Christopher Lau: Sam, Chris here. In terms of levers to the high and the low range, look, I would say — let me take a step back and remind and just kind of unpack some of the components driving the revenue guidance. Bryan touched on this, but we’re expecting average monthly realized rent this year to grow about 6.5%. Remember, that’s driven by last year’s earn-in and then partial year contribution from this year’s leasing spreads, which we expect to be in the 5% to 6% area on a full year basis. And then on occupancy, we see full year 2023 being in the 97% area, which is still really, really strong, just a touch below last year’s 97.2%. That translates into rent revenue growth in the low 6% area, add to that about 20 basis points from contribution from our growing ancillary income programs and about 40 basis points of bad debt drag that we talked about a couple of minutes ago, and that will get you to our midpoint of 6%.

As I think about levers and opportunities up from there, look, 97% occupancy, that’s pretty full. That’s pretty close to structurally full occupancy. So, to us, we see the opportunity for upside being on spreads, naturally, as we’ve been talking about, there is uncertainty in this year ahead. 2023 is going to look different than 2022. So, we want to make sure that we’re starting the year with a prudent level of conservatism in our expectations and recognizing that there will probably be some level of moderation this year, hopefully, we’re able to do better than where we’re starting the year. And if we don’t see as much moderation, that would naturally be a lever to the upper end of the range. And then as I talked about a couple of minutes ago as well, we’re taking a conservative view to bad debt.

At the start of the year as well. And so, if we’re able to work through some of those remaining resolutions and do better than that 1.4% or so that’s contemplated in guidance at the start of the year, that would be another lever to the upper end as well.

Sam Choe: Got it. Thank you.

David Singelyn: Thanks Sam.

Operator: Thank you. Our next question is from Steve Sakwa with Evercore ISI. Please proceed with your question.

Steve Sakwa: Great. Thanks. I guess, Bryan, could you maybe just talk about what your expectations are for leasing spreads this year, kind of new renewal blended and how that might trend over the year? And Dave, could you just maybe reclarify that margin improvement, are you suggesting that, that will take place in 2024? Or could there still be, I guess, expense pressures next year that kind of keep that margin from maybe improving until 2025 and beyond?

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