American Homes 4 Rent (NYSE:AMH) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

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This is where you need to continue to underwrite and — in all of our markets. This is a diversified portfolio being in the number of markets that we’re in. More than 30 markets gives us a lot more opportunity. But we don’t need to press to buy. And so, we need to be patient, WE need to be disciplined. And those opportunities are closer today than they were in our last call, 30 or 90 days ago or maybe a little more than that, but they’re still not there. and the cost of capital is also a variable that is not constant either. It’s volatile, and ever-changing as well. So, you got to continually match the two of them up and evaluate between the two on a month-to-month basis. We are closer, but we’re not that close today.

Operator: Thank you. Our next question comes from Daniel with Scotiabank. Please proceed with your question.

Unidentified Analyst: Thanks. Good afternoon. Question on the development platform following up on Haendel’s question. So, you’re guiding to about 1,850 wholly-owned delivery this year at an average 350,000 home. That’s based on the $650 million capital investment guidance. How much of the vertical cost softening that you mentioned, Dave, does that imply versus the stuff that’s being delivered today?

David Singelyn: Yes. So, the stuff that is delivered today, defining today as the fourth quarter — wrong — the vertical — the total cost of the deliveries is about $350,000 and it’s about — $250,000 of that is in vertical. I don’t have the exact specific numbers, but that’s directionally correct. What we are seeing on the vertical cost reductions from peak is today, we’re probably in that 10% to 15% on vertical alone, expecting to get to maybe 20%. But keep in mind, that doesn’t mean that you’re going to see a 20% reduction, two things that you have to factor in. You have to factor in the fact that there’s land and land development. So, you’re going to see about 20 — I’m sorry, about $40,000 of benefit coming through. We already are seeing in our acquisition of lumber today, about $17,000 to $18,000 of benefit just on the lumber line of what we were contracting nine months ago.

And then other lines throughout the entire development platform, we have some savings now, and we expect to see more savings in a number of those lines. The overall, we’ll expect to probably see a 10% reduction on home costs between fourth quarter of last year. in what we delivered fourth quarter of next year. As long as you comp — and make sure that you are looking at comparable markets. So, market mix will have an impact. Land is more expensive in the West than in the Southeast. And so as long as we are looking at market-by-market and not to the average of our entire company, it’s about — going to be about a 10% reduction fourth quarter to fourth quarter.

Unidentified Analyst: Really helpful, Dave. Thank you. Chris, a quick follow-up. How much rental assistance did you receive last year? And I guess what’s left for, if anything, for 2023?

Christopher Lau: It’s definitely tapering down in last year, I’m just doing some quick math, let’s see a live and call it, $16 million to $18 million or so for last year, and that’s tapered from, call it, $5 million to $6 million per quarter in the first half of last year, down to I think we got about $3 million or so in the fourth quarter. Hard to predict exactly where it’s going to taper to into the first couple of quarters of 2023, I’d expect us to still be receiving some, but glide pathing down over the course of the year.

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