American Homes 4 Rent (NYSE:AMH) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

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Christopher Lau: Yes. Alan, Chris, great question. We’ve talked about this for years. we are one of, if not the most active appealer of property tax values across the country. We are very, very active each and every year. A couple of updates. Last year, we filed 12,000 to 13,000 to 14,000 individual property tax value appeals. We had a pretty successful year. I think our actual success rate last year was about 70%. We saw a 4% to 5% value reduction based on the successful appeals that we won. There are still, I’d call it, a couple of hundred or so open appeals that are rolling from last year into this year. I think we’ve got a pretty good idea where those are going to land. And largely, all of that has been captured into our actuals.

And as we’re heading into 2023, we absolutely expect to lean into the appeals machine again. And hopefully, we have another year of good success there in terms of how we contemplate it in our guidance, no different than any other year. We always start the year with a conservative expectation or a conservative consideration of likelihood of success. We don’t want to be on the wrong side of that. And so, we’ve got, like I said, a conservative estimate factored into 2023. Hopefully, we can do better than that. But again, that’s not something that we really hear back on until the second half of the year, and we’ll have to provide updates as we get through the process.

Alan Peterson: I appreciate that. And maybe just following up on your response to Adam’s question on the development pipeline. I know that Jack had mentioned a couple of years ago that the development program could ramp to 3,000, 4,000 new deliveries on a yearly basis. Is the current guidance of 2,300 homes? Is that a capital allocation considerations today? Or are there any other factors limiting your ability to scale construction to that new delivery target?

David Singelyn: Yes, it’s a good question. There’s a number of factors. The first answer is 3,000, 4,000 homes is very doable from an infrastructure and a demand standpoint. With respect to actually executing on the deliveries, what we have experienced over the last three years is a slowdown through the COVID years of getting inspectors out to be able and permitting at the municipal level of the horizontal or land delivery or the land development process. And you need to develop the land in order to be able to do vertical buildings. So, we’re set back a little bit on the 2023-2024 delivery plan not because of what’s happening in 2023 and 2024, but what happened in 2020, 2021, 2022 with respect to land development and getting the inspections of that work done.

Going into 2025. Again, this is not necessarily COVID, this is more the economic and interest rate changes that we saw late 2022, which has slowed down our land acquisition pipeline. We’re going to grow in a disciplined and controlled way. We can be patient if we need to. We don’t need to grow just for adding numbers to an infrastructure line. So, what we have seen in 2022, as I indicated earlier, we’ve only acquired one parcel in the fourth quarter because of the pricing and what we’re seeing in the changing environment. So, what we’re experiencing today, probably one of the greatest economic adjustments in a short period of time. To me, that doesn’t reflect the long-term viability or long-term benefits. It’s a short-term impact. However, in development short-term is multiple years, not a single day, single month or even a single year.

And so, I think the opportunity is there. I know the opportunity is there to get to 3,000 and 4,000 homes and maybe even a little bit more. In the short-term, a couple of things have happened along the way.

Operator: Our next question is from Brad Heffern with RBC. Please proceed with your question.

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