American Homes 4 Rent (NYSE:AMH) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Austin Wurschmidt: So, it seems fair to think that you could be back into the 5% to 6% loss to lease early next year as things start to ramp. Any comments on that? I also wanted to revisit, Bryan, I think it was your comment about the strong retention you’ve had relative to pre-pandemic, even though I know turnover is up slightly year-over-year. But one, what are the biggest move-outs more recently? And then two, do you think you can drive down turnover further from current levels? Are there targets you have internally that you could get to over time that maybe you could share? Thanks.

Bryan Smith: Yes, sure, Austin. I think it’s a little early to tell on exactly where rates are going to land next year. We’ll have better color for you, I think, on the next call. Retention, the comments I made were comparison between what’s happened in 2023 and prepandemic. We’ve seen really nice improvement. When you compare it to last year, if you remember, there were differences with delinquency resolution and there’s a little bit of noise from the COVID period. But operationally, improved retention is one of our major focal points. It’s a major point of the Resident 360 investment. And our teams are constantly looking for ways to improve retention by improving the resident experience. So I’m optimistic that there’s room there.

Operator: Our next question is from Jesse Lederman with Zelman & Associates. Please proceed.

Jesse Lederman: Hi, thanks for taking my questions and congrats on the strong quarter. Your disposition pace this year has been your highest ever. Of course, it’s an attractive source of capital. Can you just talk about how comfortably high you feel with that going given different friction costs associated with dispositions? And maybe talk a little bit about the puts and takes of what those costs are.

David Singelyn: Yes. So Jesse, its Dave. On dispositions, you’re 100% right. This year is our highest year in our history as we’re going — we’re at 1,300 [Ph] at the end of the third quarter. About 225 of those would be in the third quarter itself. October continues to be strong. As we go into future years, we will continue to use our analysis and our data to look at other properties that meet our long-term criteria, and those that don’t will go into the disposition category. And whether it is existing properties or land, it should be noted that we look at all of that. We are — we’ve actually been a net seller of land in this year. So we rightsize all of our program. I will — I want to add one thing, as we go into 2024, but maybe more importantly for 2025, one of the benefits of our securitization is getting refinanced as those homes will get unencumbered.

And there will be some homes in the securitizations that today are not practical to sell that will probably screen as disposition candidates in 2025 after they’re unencumbered late 2024.

Jesse Lederman: That’s very helpful. Thank you. My next question is on occupancy. And I understand your occupancy is still above pre-COVID averages. And you made some comments saying you think that occupancy and rent growth kind of a new normal a bit higher than pre-COVID levels. But can you talk about how you think about the puts and takes of occupancy versus rent growth? So now you’re at 96.2% for October. Are you looking to keep that above 96%? Are you okay with it trending down closer to pre-COVID levels? Just trying to understand how you view the trade-off between occupancy and rent growth. Thanks again.

Bryan Smith: Yes. Thanks, Jesse. This is Bryan. We’re focused on optimizing the entire revenue line. And the interplay there obviously is occupancy and rate. We’ve made really good improvements in revenue management over the last 5 or 6 years and I think are benefiting us today. As I said before, my expectation — our expectation is that there is going to be a new norm on occupancy. The demand backdrop is fantastic. We’ll be in a good position going into next year. Single-family sector and value proposition is as strong as it’s ever been. So we have good expectations on continued strong rent growth.