American Homes 4 Rent (NYSE:AMH) Q2 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

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Bryan Smith: Yes. To answer your first question on loss to lease, it’s consistent with what we saw last quarter, around 6%. And I think there’s an interesting distinction. Our market expectations, if you look at the broad markets, this still consistent with what we saw last quarter. I think John Burns started the year in our markets at 2% to 3%, expanded that to 2% to 4%. But what we’re really seeing is a testament to the quality assets and our quality locations within the markets. And that’s how we’re able to outperform relative to those market expectations.

Operator: Our next question comes from Dennis McGill with Zelman & Associates. Please proceed with your question.

Dennis McGill: Hi, thanks for the time. Going back to the JV, will the new JV be seeded with land you already own or will that start from scratch?

Chris Lau: No, it will start from scratch, Dennis.

Dennis McGill: Okay. So, setting that aside then, from the wholly-owned piece, but Chris, can you give us some context on what you would expect the pipeline can do going into next year? It sounds like you’re maybe a little uncertain on what that would be, but I would think you’d have to be making decisions now, particularly for the early part of the year, and you’re already on the land, it seems like it’s good yield. The market’s good. Home prices are going up. Again, it seems like all the ingredients are there to push forward, but maybe have been a little bit vague on what the potential could be for next year?

David Singelyn: Yes, Dennis, it’s Dave. On 2024 on the development side, we have that — we’re not ready to release our numbers, but as you indicated, we have the land, and we have been doing land improvements on the land that will be the product that’s going to come out of the ground in 2024. So yes, we have a pretty good idea of where that’s going to be. Without giving specific guidance, it will be a greater delivery number than we see in 2023.

Operator: Our next question comes from Alan Peterson with Green Street. Please proceed with your question.

Alan Peterson: Thanks. Bryan, I was just hoping, across the portfolio, if you can give an update on where rent to income ratios are today. And given that people are spending more on housing today than in prior years, where do you see that pricing opportunity kind of capping out for yourselves or the sector from a rent to income standpoint?

Bryan Smith: Yes, Alan, thanks for the question. A couple of interesting things that we’ve seen as we looked at the last few years is that the demand is so great that the applicant income is keeping pace with the increase in rents. If you look at Q2 specifically, relative to the prior year, the stated income for our applicants went up about 8%, which is consistent with the change in rents for the homes that they were applying to. Our income to rent ratios have maintained around five times, provides a lot of capacity and it gives us a lot of confidence in the health of the collections going forward. We’re very happy. The demand is so good, the income is following appropriately. We’re just not concerned about that particular aspect.

David Singelyn: Alan, this is Dave. Let me add a couple — one thing, I guess, to that. Demand is very, very strong. And part of the reason it’s very strong. When you talk about income levels and the cost of housing, Today, in our top 20 markets, every one of the markets is less expensive to rent one of our homes than it is to buy. And if you look at the average of those 20 markets, it’s 24.9% at June 30. If we look at it quarterly, call it, 25%. So, that is one of the things that is maintaining strong demand. With that said, I would also remind you that demand has been strong for the last 10 years, getting stronger and stronger as the single-family rental value proposition and the quality of the assets that are available today in the locations in which they are in the school districts in which they are becoming better known. So, a very, very strong demand for single-family rentals today.

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