American Financial Group, Inc. (NYSE:AFG) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

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Operator: . Our next question comes from Meyer Shields of KBW.

Meyer Shields: A quick question, I guess, to start with. I think it’s more of a modeling question than a reality question. But the other specialty segment had some adverse reserve development in every quarter in 2022. And I was hoping you could talk about what’s going through that.

Brian Hertzman: Sure. Sure. This is Brian. So the other specialty is primarily our internal reinsurance facility. So that’s where we take on more of our business corporately than we do in the individual business units. So what we’re seeing there is adverse development in some of the social inflation exposed lines, the excess liability type of lines where we have participated in the reinsurance above the business unit. So social inflation is driving the number there. We obviously are — as you know, we’re conservative in our reserving. So we are — we feel like we’re in a good place now, but that’s what’s driving the $13 million in the quarter and the $40 million for the year as an adverse development coming out of the social inflation exposed businesses that would be part of our Specialty Casualty segment going into that reinsurance facility.

Meyer Shields: Okay. That’s helpful. And then one other question. Can you give us a sense as to the macroeconomic growth that underpins your net written premium growth expectations for 2023?

Carl Lindner: I’m not sure we really — really have kind of underpinned based off of a given GDP number versus more of — each of our businesses are so different than the other with kind of their own mini economic environments in that, whether it’s equine mortality or workers’ comp in that. But clearly, we’ve couched our premium guidance in an economy that has slowed down and slowing down in some cases. And whether it’s impact on payroll or sales or things that premiums are based off in different businesses. That definitely has an impact in that.

Meyer Shields: Okay. Understood. Like the third question is if that the delta between pricing and premium growth is 1%, which seems fairly conservative.

Carl Lindner: As I mentioned before, we try to — the crop business is going to — it’s a fairly — we’re projecting that to be down 3%. We won’t know for sure until the average of soybean and corn’s future prices for the month of February. So we’ll know more at the end of February exactly what that is. I think that has an impact. And then I mentioned earlier on the call, some of the competition that doesn’t make any sense in things like public D&O and in high excess liability, where I think new entrants have jumped in trying to establish a position. That will come back to haunt us at some point, particularly — those are 2 businesses that have social inflation exposure in that. So I have no doubt about that.

Operator: Thank you. I’m showing no further questions at this time. I will just turn the call back over to Diane Weidner for any closing remarks.

Diane Weidner: Thank you all for joining us this morning. This concludes our prepared remarks and Q&A session, and we look forward to talking with you all again next quarter. Thank you.

Operator: Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today’s conference. Thank you all for participating. You may now disconnect. Have a great day.

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