American Express Company (NYSE:AXP) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

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The other thing that I would say, when you think about revenue growth, unlike our competitors, we have a 3-legged revenue stool here, right? You’ve got €“ you’ve got fees that we get for merchants, you have card fees. No card fees were 25% growth in the fourth quarter. And while that’s a high number, we certainly expect double-digit card fee growth to continue. And then you have, obviously, which is a smaller portion of our business. We have obviously interest revenue as well. So when we look at the card members we’re acquiring, we’re really looking at acquiring revenue across those three components. And the other thing I’d point you to is 70% of the cards that we acquire are paying fees. So that’s how we come up with 15% to 17%

Operator: Thank you. The next question is coming from Sanjay Sakhrani of KBW. Please go ahead.

Sanjay Sakhrani: Thanks. Good morning. I had a revenue question as well. Jeff, could you maybe just disaggregate the building blocks of the revenue growth. I know you mentioned a couple of things in terms of the trends on fees and NII. I’m just looking at discount revenue and the year-over-year change in growth, and that sort of decelerated a little bit more than I had anticipated, I guess, does that slow down? Maybe some help there would be helpful?

Jeff Campbell: I think, Sanjay, the building blocks are pretty straightforward. And of course, as Steve just pointed out in our model, you always have to start expecting, right? That’s what drives our model, that lending. And I think probably the important words that I would pick out of some of the things Steve and I have just said, for most of our spending categories, if you think about what’s important in terms of dollars, we really have hit recovery point. And so as we look at the Q4 rate, I actually see those exit rates is approaching pretty stable levels for what we think given the tremendous success we’re having in bringing new customers into the franchise because as you know, Sanjay, that is a key aspect of what drives our growth.

I actually see those rates being fairly stable going forward. So that’s what drives first really strong discount revenue growth. Our card fee growth, as Steve just mentioned, is super sustainable. I’d just remind everyone that is the front-line item that grew double digits right through all the ups and downs of the pandemic. And gosh, our latest figures that Steve just gave you, 70% of our card members on fee-paying products this quarter, we have a long ways to go to keep growing net card fees. And then, look, it’s the third leg of the stool. It’s only 19%, 20% of our revenues, but net interest income matters. And we are still in a rebuilding mode of balance. Certainly, that process has now begun in earnest, and that’s why you saw our loans grow a little faster than volumes this quarter.

So I don’t expect to see quite as high a rate next year as you saw in Q4. But it’s still above in 2023, I would say the stable level and still above where we were pre pandemic because of that rebuilding process. So you put all that together with the comments that you’ve now heard both Steve and I make, which is, look, we got to run the business based on what we see with our customers who are premium consumers, select segments of small businesses and the largest companies in the world, and that’s where you get to the 15% to 17% revenue growth.

Operator: Thank you. The next question is coming from Betsy Graseck of Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Betsy Graseck: Hi, good morning.

Steve Squeri: Good morning, Betsy.

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