American Express Company (NYSE:AXP) Q1 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

I think, look, every year’s a little different and you have a higher growth rate year-over-year, Moshe, this quarter because you think about 2022, we really were in a ramp-up, as were many companies, as we came out of the pandemic, as we all dealt with what was some pretty high attrition in late 2021 and 2022. And we were sort of fully ramped to where we needed to be. I mean, the way we think about OpEx in – and this is actually the way we talk about it internally as well, is we have a lot of confidence in the very high revenue growth rates that we have set out in our guidance, 15% to 17% this year.We built the infrastructure of this company through the end of last year to manage that level of volume and revenue. So, we are where we need to be to manage that, which is why we’d expect sequentially this year to find that OpEx pretty flat.

So, we provided guidance for OpEx of about $14 billion. If you take out the $95 million mark-to-market loss we had on our ventures portfolio, which was mainly driven by one company, we’re pretty much tracking right to that. And I think our record, I would suggest, over more than a decade is when we tell you we’re going to hit a certain OpEx number or control OpEx, I think we have a pretty good track record of doing that. So that’s how I would think about it.Operator Thank you. The next question is coming from Bob Napoli of William Blair. Please go ahead. Bob Napoli Thank you and good morning. Question just on big picture, if you will, from – if you look at the big tech companies like Amazon and Apple and their involvement in financial services getting a little bit more, and I know that in some ways, they’re partners.

But what are your thoughts around the competitive risk from the large tech companies? They seem to be getting more and more involved in credit cards and other financial service types that might be competitive.Steve Squeri Well, look, they’ve been involved for a decade. And we – obviously, we partner with Amazon. We work very, very closely with Apple on Apple Pay and obviously, they’re a large merchant and a large partner. And it’s not just Apple and Amazon we look at. We look at all the fintechs and the startups and what have you. And I think – and that’s why we always say, when you look at competition, it’s just not the traditional banks. It’s the fintech. It’s the big tech players and so forth. And the reality is that the way that you have to compete not only against them, but compete against everybody else is, you have to give your customers what they want and you have to continually to develop better value propositions.

And so yes, these are great companies. There are great banks out there. There are great – Amazon and Apple are phenomenal companies that know the consumer. We believe, we know the consumer as well, and they help us raise our game overall.But we’re not naïve enough to think that we can just go on sort of strolling down the street here thinking, who is ever going to compete and no one’s going to come after us. The way – we’re paranoid. We think everybody is coming after us. And it’s one of the reasons that we constantly focus on upgrading our products and services. And it’s one of the things that we talk about. We’re constantly adding value to our products. Yes, it would be probably easier to not do that, but we challenge the team constantly to develop better value propositions.

And so we worry about everybody. And the only thing that we can do about it is continue to do what we’ve done for years, offer the best service, offer the best products and make sure that our customers are happy.Operator Thank you. The next question is coming from Don Fandetti of Wells Fargo. Please go ahead. Don Fandetti Good morning, Jeff. I was wondering if you could talk the banking crisis. Do you expect that to impact your ability to buy back stock? And also, was there any impact from the Delta sharing adjustment? And will there be any this year?Jeff Campbell So two very different questions. So capital and liquidity Don, I mean we are in a very strong position. Our capital target of 10% to 11% on a CET1 basis is actually well above the regulatory requirement.

Our target is really driven by the rating agency view. So, I know exactly what’s going to happen from a regulatory perspective, but even some change in the regulatory environment that significantly increase the capital we need to hold is unlikely to have any impact on what we actually hold today.And so look, our company has a ROE of 30% or better. We generate a tremendous amount of capital. We don’t need that much capital to support our organic growth. So you’ll see us continue to aggressively buy back shares, which is why – the Board, in fact, approved a huge new multi-year target for share repurchase earlier in the quarter. Our liquidity position is also very strong, as I talked about in our remarks.When you think about headwinds in 2023, I’d remind you on the January call, I pointed out that a 500 basis point increase in interest rates in a year is a headwind for us year-over-year in 2023, which won’t really exist in 2024.

And they’re unlikely to do another 500 basis points. For that matter, I just talked in response to Craig’s question about the fact that our provision this year is kind of back to a steady-state level, whereas last year, you had it still greatly impacted by see its reserve releases. So those are two headwinds in 2020 we will not have in 2024.You have put your finger on the third headwind, which is we have a fabulous partnership with Delta works great for them, works great for us. We work together all the time. Seem to see Steve together like every week practically. But it is true that when we renewed early the partnership back in 2019 and extended it through 2030, we agreed to a change in the rates of how some of the economic sharing work effective the year in the original contract is going to expire, which is 2023.

So there is a step-up this year that flows through various lines in the P&L but generally falls into the variable customer engagement line. So that’s part of what drove us up a little bit on the 42% to 43% target that we have this year. I would point out, that’s another sort of headwind to our earnings growth this year that we will not face in 2024. So thank you for the question.Operator Thank you. Our final question will come from Lisa Ellis of MoffettNathanson. Please go ahead. Lisa Ellis Terrific. Thanks for taking my question. I had a question on T&E renormalization. With T&E up 39% again year-on-year, it’s still clearly renormalizing a bit post-pandemic, as you highlighted, particularly outside the U.S. Do you have a sense like looking under the covers at the spending dynamics how much further that has to go and when we might see that piece that’s been driving your disproportionate growth moderate a little bit?