American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. (NYSE:AEO) Q3 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

And then, as we’re describing, after that 6- to 12-month period, you start to see the total market lift. So, we play that out over these past two years. As Michael said, as we head into the fourth quarter, we actually believe that the comp performance in Aerie could improve. We talked about guiding to similar comps, but depending on the mix of business within Aerie, we could actually see a positive comp or a better result in the fourth quarter. And then, as you play this forward into ’23, we’re only contemplating opening maybe 30 locations next year. So you won’t have any — really any significant comp impact from that growth, many of these 130-plus stores coming around in ’23 and ramping up their maturity. So, that’s what we’re talking about in terms of the tailwind in the next year and beyond is some really aggressive openings, really aggressive investment in the brand, and that’s next year, we’re excited about what that means to overall growth and comp growth.

Standalone and side-by-side performance, I think you asked about. I don’t think we’re seeing a significant difference between formats right now. So I think you can assume that. And then Michael, on product costs into next year, you can take that.

Michael Rempell: Yes. Paul, the question was what are we seeing first half, second half? We really haven’t — it’s too early to comment on the second half of next year. In the first half, we certainly see markup being better than it was this year. And actually, we’re seeing a lot of — we’re just seeing a lot of benefit in the business. I think the fact that we’re ending the fourth quarter with inventories still clear, we’re getting the full benefit of a weaker demand environment as we’re sourcing spring and summer products. So I see markup better than 2022 in the first half. And for spring and summer, in any way, we’re seeing markup better than pre-pandemic 2019.

Operator: Our next question is from Janet Kloppenburg with JJK Research Associates.

Janet Kloppenburg: Hi, everybody. And congrats on the improved results. Jen, can you just talk a little bit about what kind of levels of promotional activity we should see in the fourth quarter on a year-over-year basis? Inventories are in great shape and you’re excited about the product. And as a comparison it’s relatively easy. So, I’m wondering what we should be watching for in the fourth quarter. And on SG&A, as we look out to next year, are there any investments that were put off for this year that we should consider for next year. And just lastly, Jay, if you could enlighten us on your thoughts about consumer spending next year and how that may impact your business, it would be terrific.

Jen Foyle: Look, I think what you’re going to see is we’re going to remain competitive through these next couple of weeks. They’re big weeks for us, and we want to step up our game for sure. So, we will be competitive. But then what I — hopefully, through my crystal ball, I do believe that we have opportunity in December to run better businesses. If you recall last year, Aerie definitely had opportunity on the margin side in Q4. So, we’re definitely going to step that up and make sure that we’re protecting that. And December, we believe, that’s our opportunity, including January, like I mentioned, where we don’t have the inventory levels that some of our competition has, and it will allow us to really pull back on promotion in January when it’s a highly liquidation period, as you know, and set us up for success for early spring.

I just approved the spring store set. They look phenomenal. That’s when you’ll see our new surprise in men’s. And — yes, we’re just going to keep on trying to deliver our newness, Janice — again, Janet, and so we can compete on our terms.