American Airlines Group Inc. (NASDAQ:AAL) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

We will create more redemption opportunities for the [Technical Difficulty] but then also, what will be in place by the end of this year is that 100% of what we sell will be able to be serviced digitally but only through Internet-based technologies. That’s the thing which is hugely impactful to our customers. For any of you, if you’re traveling on American Airlines, I encourage you if you’re making changes, please use the app to do so. I think you’ll find it to be a much better experience in times past and an industry-leading one as well.

Daniel McKenzie: Very good. Okay. Second question here for Devon. I know Robert shared that 75% of the debt is at a fixed rate. But just given the higher for longer interest rate regime today, how is that changing the way you think about the three-year balance sheet targets and goals? And can American get to an investment-grade rating at some point — and what might a realistic time frame look like to get there?

Devon May: Well, I’ll just start with right now, our focus on the balance sheet has been really on 2025. And our stated goal is that we are going to reduce $15 billion in total debt by the end of 2025. We still expect to do that at this point. And we think if we get there, that gets us to a BB credit. Beyond 2025, we’ll see where it goes. But right now, we’re focused on the next couple of years.

Daniel McKenzie: Okay. Thanks, guys.

Operator: Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Mary Schlangenstein of Bloomberg News.

Mary Schlangenstein: Hi, good morning. Thank you. I had two quick questions. First is, when do you expect to start getting the XLR? My second question is, you mentioned that domestic demand is steady, but I wanted to see if you could be more specific on that. Like how it’s increasing into the fourth quarter toward the winter holidays. Also wondering if on international demand, if you’ve seen the level of demand that’s normally like a summer peak level, has that continued past October and through the end of the year like some of the other international carriers have said?

Devon May: Hey, it’s Devon. I’ll just start on the XLR and then hand over to Sue. We expect our first XLR delivery to come late next year, and then the order stream starts to really pick up in 2025 and 2026.

Vasu Raja: Yes. And hey Mary, I think that probably the best way to answer your question is kind of taking a long view look at it. And as we look at just overall demand in our system versus 2019, we’re seeing like revenue production, which could be 15%, 20% higher than what was there before. That’s across the industry, but for American Airlines specifically. So when you extract yourself from like the year-over-year, quarter-to-quarter changes, what you do see is that demand for travel is materially larger. In the airline capacity is starting to catch up to what that is, but that’s our reasons for saying that we see a lot of — we see domestic on a similar demand trend line as what’s been out there, and we certainly see that as we’re anticipating characteristically strong peak periods.

And then as far as long-haul international goes, yes, we do continue to see strength in Q4. A lot of it is — domestic was a marketplace that for customers opened up a lot sooner and a lot more completely and comprehensive than what many of these. Many countries outside of the U.S. did. So we’re still in a period where some of that demand is coming back. And we, as many are beneficiaries of that.

Mary Schlangenstein: Thanks a lot, Vasu. Can you just be more specific in terms of the upcoming demand domestically for the holiday period? I mean really, I don’t think there’s a lot of interest now in what the comparisons are to 2019. Just are you seeing higher demand going into the holidays that you normally would? Is it slower when you say steady, that doesn’t give a necessarily very good impression in terms of what your holiday demand is.

Vasu Raja: Well, look, Mary, in our holidays, we routinely have far more demand than we have seats for whether you want to compare it to 2022, 2021, 2019 or probably 2009. So we’re in a place right now where actually our holidays are very lightly booked because we know any time we create more availability in the holidays, the seats go very quickly. So we are anticipating continued like year-over-year improvement in holiday performance. What we have been seeing in things like the days around the big peak periods also are stronger on a year-over-year booking basis, too. But still, we are in a place where the entire month of November is less than 40% booked for American Airlines. And that’s deliberate because we’re anticipating really a lot of the continued strength around peaks.

Mary Schlangenstein: Great. Thank you very much.

Operator: Apologies. [Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from the line of Alison Sider of Wall Street Journal.

Alison Sider: Yes, thank you. I was curious if the latest spirit issues with Boeing are impacting American at all if you’re expecting any kind of delays and if those will affect schedules and plans at all?

Robert Isom: Yes. Ali, thanks for that. Look, we work closely with Boeing. And I have to tell you that the Boeing team has been really, really forthcoming and cooperative with us. Certainly, they have some issues with supply chain, and they’re working with us on our order book. We probably anticipate seeing a little bit of slippage as we go into next year but it’s not something that is going to have a material impact on our capacity, and we’re working very closely with Boeing on that. So thanks for that question.

Alison Sider: Thank you. And then I guess on pilots, some other airlines and unions have talked about kind of like an unusual maybe reluctance for pilots — first off, there’s upgrade the Captain, maybe more quality of life issues coming up. Are you guys seeing that at all?

Robert Isom: I’ll ask David Seymour, our Chief Operating Officer, to comment?

David Seymour: Yes. No, I appreciate the question, Ali. I think you’re probably focusing on the regional operations where there — first off, I think probably the bigger constraint we have is them getting the hours to be able to upgrade to captain. But we’re not seeing any reluctance really overall that first officers don’t want to upgrade to captain.

Robert Isom: Yes. And hey David, remind me, for same aircraft type, when we see first officers upgrading from the FO position to capital position, the compensation increases roughly 35%, 40%.

David Seymour: That’s correct, yes.

Robert Isom: Yes. So there’s a strong incentive to become a captain at American Airlines.

Alison Sider: Thanks.

Operator: Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Alexandra Scores of Dallas Morning News.

Alexandra Scores: Hi, good morning. Thank you for taking my question, I wanted to ask about station and how that’s impacting American customers? And then my second question is what you’re seeing in that same vein, looking ahead to the winter travel season?

Vasu Raja: Sorry, we didn’t hear you super well in the room. Would you say emissions.

Alexandra Scores: Inflation, sorry.