We recently compiled a list of the 10 Best Magic Formula Stocks For The Rest Of 2024. In this article, we are going to take a look at where Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) stands against the other magic formula stocks.
One of the best known investment strategies on Wall Street, and one that’s also followed by investing greats the like of Warren Buffett of Berkshire Hathaway and Seth Klarman of Baupost Group is value investing. Another fund manager who has delivered fantastic returns through a value based approach is Joel Greenblatt. Greenblatt currently runs the hedge fund Gotham Asset Management, a fund that he set up in 2008 after moving forward from his previous fund called Gotham Capital.
Greenblatt is among the fund managers that have consistently delivered double digit percentage returns during their career on Wall Street. His previous firm, Gotham Capital, had an amazing run between 1985 and 1994. During this time period, the firm delivered a net return of 34%. This was particularly impressive, as 1985 was the year in which Gotham Capital was founded. On an annualized basis, the fund’s returns were even stronger, since during the same period, Greenblatt’s fund delivered 50% in returns.
The hallmark of a value investing strategy, as you’ll understand if you study Warren Buffett’s investment strategy in detail, is patience. This also applies to Greenblatt, who typically waits for at least a couple of years after making an investment to reap the returns. But while patience might be a virtue, on Wall Street, it’s the returns that matter. On this front, Greenblatt hasn’t disappointed, as his fund’s blazing run in the 1980s wasn’t its only one. After setting up Gotham Asset Management in 2008, the value investor managed multiple funds. Two of these were the Gotham Absolute Return (AR) fund and the Gotham Neutral fund. Among these, the AR fund was set up in 2012, and between then and 2018, its returns sat at 58.6%.
However, while these returns are impressive, this period was filled with ups and downs for the investment vehicle. For instance, 2013 was one of the best years for this fund as it posted 29.82% in returns. These gains were trimmed down to 9.31% in 2014. While these weren’t as strong as the previous year’s performance, they were nevertheless in the green. This is important since the next year wasn’t great by any account, since in 2015, the AR fund ended up with -10.25%. 2016 was somewhat turbulent for American stock markets since the Brexit vote in the UK, slowing Chinese GDP growth, and a commodities slump led to US and global stocks dipping between the end of 2015 and the first half of 2016. Between June 2015 and late February 2016, the blue chip Dow index had lost roughly 9% and the broader NASDAQ had bled a much higher 11%.
The next year would see Greenblatt bounce back. In 2016, the fund delivered 7.97% in returns and accelerated its performance later on through posting 10.03% in gains. During these same years, i.e., in 2014, the Gotham Neutral fund’s annualized returns had sat at 6.83%.
Since the onset of the coronavirus pandemic in late 2019, the stock market has been operating in a changed environment. The pandemic’s immediate aftermath saw major stock indexes crash by 30%+, which then led to the Federal Reserve reducing rates to near zero levels. The subsequent low cost of capital, the boom in demand for consumer technology products, and the rise in retail investing then saw markets soar. During this time period, i.e., the bottom in March 2020 and the peak of December 2021, Greenblatt’s AR fund was up by 55% while the flagship S&P index gained 103%. This might make you think that perhaps the investor, who calls his investment approach a ‘Magic Formula’ had lost its magic.
But you’d be wrong. The magic of the Magic Formula was visible during the next phase of the stock market. This was marked by the Federal Reserve’s rapid interest rate tightening cycle that came in response to soaring inflation. Between December 2021 and October 2023, inflation continued to rise, as the interest rates took their sweet time to make a mark. This meant that the flagship S&P was down by 13.6% from 2021 close to the end of October 2023.
However, during the same period, the AR fund had gained 3.41%. A short strategy had helped Greenblatt, it seems, as the AR fund advertises itself as being 50% to 60% net long. Gotham’s pure play long fund, which is 100% long, led the S&P in losses during this time period as it had lost 15.52% during the same period and a stronger 27% from its peak in November start. However, the magic was visible between the March bottom and the November 2021 peak as during this period the 100% long fund had gained 97% to nearly match the flagship index.
Before we head to our list of the best Magic Formula Stocks, it’s also important to take a brief look at what this investment technique entails. Greenblatt’s strategy is based on two metrics, the return on capital employed (ROCE) and the earnings yield. In a simple implementation, stocks are ranked according to these metrics, and the top stocks are bought and held for the long term. A specialty implementation is what Gotham calls its Gotham Yield. According to the fund, this is a proprietary technique that assesses a firm’s “pre-tax cash flow, return on capital, and enterprise value.”
Our Methodology
To make our list of the best magic formula stocks to buy, we ranked the stocks present in Gotham Asset Management’s Q2 2024 SEC filings by their dollar value and picked out the most valuable holdings.
For these stocks, we also mentioned the number of hedge fund investors. Why are we interested in the stocks that hedge funds pile into? The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter’s strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 275% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 150 percentage points (see more details here).
A customer entering an internet retail store, illustrating the convenience of online shopping.
Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN)
Number of Hedge Fund Investors In Q2 2024: 308
Gotham Asset Management’s Q2 2024 Stake: $60.8 million
Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) is an American eCommerce company that has also diversified its business into the lucrative cloud computing market. Its eCommerce site attracted 3.25 billion users in June, which provides the firm with a sizeable customer base and increases its value to merchants and advertisers. Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN)’s cloud business and its tech focused approach have also allowed it to bring its very own AI model under its fold. The firm’s partnership with Anthropic has enabled Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) to use the Claude AI model. This enables it to build a variety of internal and external AI driven services on a foundational base, meaning that the company does not have to pay fees to others for using AI. Additionally, Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) is also working on all three layers of the AI stack, from developing its own chips, to building a foundation model and developing AI applications. This could position the firm nicely to benefit from all aspects of AI demand in the future.
Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN)’s management provided key details for its AI work during the Q2 2024 earnings call:
“You can see this philosophy in the primitive building blocks we’re building at all three layers of the Gen AI stack. At the bottom layer, which is for those building generative AI models themselves, the cost to compute for training and inference is critical, especially as models get to scale. We have a deep partnership with NVIDIA and the broadest selection of NVIDIA instances available, but we’ve heard loud and clear from customers that they relish better price performance. It’s why we’ve invested in our own custom silicon in Trainium for training and Inferentia for inference.
And the second versions of those chips, with Trainium coming later this year, are very compelling in price performance. We’re seeing significant demand for these chips. These model builders also desire services that make it much easier to manage the data, construct the models, experiment, deploy to production, and achieve high-quality performance, all while saving considerable time and money. That’s what Amazon SageMaker does so well, including its most recently launched feature called HyperPods that changes the game and networking performance for large models. And we’re increasingly seeing model builders standardized on SageMaker. While many teams will build their own models, lots of others will leverage somebody else’s frontier model, customize it with their own data and seek a service that provides broad model selection and great generative AI capabilities.
This is what we think of as the middle layer, what Amazon Bedrock does and why Bedrock has tens of thousands of companies using it already. Bedrock has the largest selection of models, the best generative AI capabilities in critical areas like model evaluation, guardrails, RAG and agenting, and then makes it easy to switch between different model types and model sizes. Bedrock has recently added Anthropic’s Claude 3.5 models, which are the best performing models on the planet. Meta’s new Llama 3.1 models and Mistral’s new Large two models. And Lama’s and Mistral’s impressive performance benchmarks in open nature are quite compelling to our customers as well. At the application or top layer, we’re continuing to see strong adoption of Amazon Q, the most capable generative AI powered assistant for software development and to leverage your own data.
Q has the highest known score and acceptance rate for code suggestions, but it does a lot more than provide code suggestions. It tests code, outperforms all other publicly benchmarkable competitors on catching security vulnerabilities and leads all software development assistants on connecting multiple steps together and applying automatic action. It also saves development teams time and money on the muck nobody likes to talk about. For instance, when companies decide to upgrade from one version of a framework to another, it takes development teams many months, sometimes years, burning valuable opportunity costs and churning developers who hate this tedious, though important work. With Q’s code transformation capabilities, Amazon has migrated over 30,000 Java JDK applications in a few months, saving the company $260 million and 4,500 developer years compared to what it would have otherwise cost.”
Overall AMZN ranks 5th on our list of the best magic formula stocks to buy. While we acknowledge the potential of AMZN as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter timeframe. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than AMZN but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.
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Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey.
