Altria Group, Inc. (NYSE:MO) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Matthew Smith: Wanted to ask a follow-up question around the change in the impact of cross-category dynamics and now the 2% drag you’re seeing on cigarette volumes. Can you talk about your expectations for how these consumers that are using the illicit products that are generating that higher drag, how do you expect them to behave once you do see enforcement in the category and these products that they’re using today are removed from the marketplace. Do you expect those current users to shift into lawful smoke-free products, including vapor? And then do you then expect the drag to lessen going forward given the removal of the flavor products? Or do you expect the vapor category to continue to grow through the enforcement of illicit products?

Billy Gifford: Yeah. It’s a great question. I think when you think about it, certainly, the youth that using the e-vapor, we want them completely out of the category, just to be clear on that. I think when you think about the adults that are moving over, we would want them to stay on reduced risk products. That’s why we’re excited about the NJOY product and being able to have the distribution and have it readily available for them, it’s authorized and have it readily available for them to choose. I think if you look historically, you’ll recall when the FDA eliminated flavors and pods, we did see some consumers go back to cigarettes. And so that’s best estimate, but it’s ultimately up to the consumer, and we’ll do our best to keep them in e-vapor space with the NJOY product.

Matthew Smith: Thank you, Billy. Just as a quick follow-up. I wanted to ask about the distribution opportunity around NJOY. You understand that you laid out the priorities in your first quarter of ownership focusing on the supply chain. But I was curious if there is any prioritization of expanding distribution for if and when FDA actually picks up its enforcement against illicit products, do you need to see a more proactive FDA before you expand the distribution of NJOY to take advantage of the disruption in the marketplace?

Billy Gifford: We do not. We have the target of 70,000 stores by the end of the year. We feel good about getting into those stores. Certainly, we would appreciate FDA enforcement more so for the — being able to protect the harm reduction opportunity in the US. But no, we will move forward with our distribution plans as we laid out.

Matthew Smith: Thank you, Billy. I will pass it on.

Billy Gifford: Thanks.

Operator: Thank you. We will take our next question from Gaurav Jain with Barclays. Please go ahead.

Gaurav Jain: Hi. Good morning, Billy. Good morning, Sal.

Billy Gifford: Good morning.

Gaurav Jain: A few questions from me. So first is on these — the cannibalization impact that you are sharing from e-cigarettes. So given the — on the modern oral front, it seems that the cannibalization has stepped up on cigarettes because the oral tobacco volumes are much better than what would have thought. So isn’t it that modern oral is out of 1% cannibalizing impact on cigarette volumes? And then the e-cigarette cannibalization impact is probably lesser than what you have highlighted?

Billy Gifford: Yeah. I understand your question, Gaurav. I think when we look at the information, certainly, we’re having some impact, and we’ve tried to highlight that from a sourcing perspective with novel oral products. What we highlighted for disposable is what we feel is what’s taken place from the disposables. So that’s separate and distinct from novel oral. So we feel like what we’ve estimated that 1.5 to 2.5, and I explained why it’s a range. is really the impact of disposable e-cigarettes on cigarettes.

Gaurav Jain: Sure. Thank you. And then second question is clearly, GLP-1 drug, big focus of investors right now across staples, would you have any indication of what’s the cigarette prevalence amongst consumers whose BMI is greater 27 versus prevalent some of consumers with BMI less than 27. And that 27 number is where I believe vis-a-vis gets prescribed for consumers with comorbidity. So that’s why I’m referencing that 27 number.