Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. (NYSE:AMR) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Andy Eidson: Doggone it, Nate. You hit me with this question at least every other quarter and always struggle to answer it because we hate to deal with the unknown we just saw a quarter where we ran into some issues that didn’t allow us to hit our potential. Right now we’re off to a really good start for the fourth quarter. I think I’ll probably just have to guide you to look at our year to date numbers and take that off of where we landed on guidance, our revised guidance number. I think we have a pretty high confidence level in kind of hitting down the fairway you have that delta for the fourth quarter.

Nathan Martin: Okay, got it. So I mean, kind of down the midpoint, we’ll get you maybe roughly flattish quarter-over-quarter, if that’s if my math is close. So, right. Maybe then just shifting to ‘24 guidance. Starting again on the shipment side of things $16 million tons in the midpoint. I think that’s up about $0.5 million tons versus your original ‘23 guidance, you talked about another mine coming online, right now, maybe that’s driving a little bit of that, maybe improved logistics. Are you guys comfortable maintaining that roughly $16 million ton level of sales kind of looking farther out in the market demand remain supportive. And then are you having any success entering some new markets are sending initial cargoes to new customers at this point?

Andy Eidson: Yes, I’ll defer to Dan on the second part of that Nat. But on the first part, yes, I think we’re pretty comfortable. And again, this will vacillate this, we’re not locked into $60 million tons or $50 million tons or $70 million tons, it’ll move as the portfolio develops over time. But I think we’re pretty comfortable in this area, that we’re in plus or minus $0.5 million tons, either any direction for the, for the time being. Second part, Dan?

Dan Horn : Yes, sure. And Nat, I’ll just add that yes, that, the increase is do we have two relatively new coal mines effectively, we have the rolling Thunder Mine, which started earlier this year. And now, the Checkmate, so we’ve added High Vol met production, and we’ve eliminated the now we don’t produce the Slabcamp thermal. So some of that is just a switch from thermal to med. And yeah, we’re comfortable that this this coal fine markets, primarily the new markets would be in Europe, we’re still delivering trial shipments to several new customers in Asia, and expect to do more in 2024.

Nathan Martin: That’s great. And so, Dan, appreciate that. And maybe with those two new mines, could you talk about what your quality mix might look like? If it differs much from the chart, I think you guys usually have in your deck?

Dan Horn : Just broadly speaking, is just feel a little more high vol, I guess we have to call it an A or B, it’s probably more on the high vol B side. So maybe increasing the high vol piece of that pie a little bit.

Andy Eidson: Yes. And I think as Nat as a percentage, if you’re looking at the pie chart that we have in our investor deck, when it’s time to get it squared away for ‘23ish numbers, I don’t think it’s going to look very different than to Dan’s point, and may flex up one or 1% or 2%, until high vol. But it’s going to look really similar. With no, I don’t think there’ll be any kind of material changes until we do get closer to ‘25 when Kingston brings more low vol into the mix.

Nathan Martin: Got it. Perfect guys. And then one more if I could, going back to ‘24 guidance, and specifically for the met segment cost per tonne guidance. I think the implication there is up about $2.50 year-over-year just using guidance midpoints. Different color and prepared remarks there, I think some of its labor with your new agreements you put in place in August, anything else kind of driving that uptick? And then maybe what net prices are you guys assuming for that $110, $116 range? Thanks.