Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. (NYSE:AMR) Q1 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Dan Horn: I guess, this market, I would describe is still kind of a balanced market. We – there’s no doubt steel production around the world is down. It’s been a long time, I guess, since I’ve seen all of our markets have kind of depressed steel markets. There’s not a lot of good demand in any markets. India, as you know, is a little weaker than they’ve been in a few years. And I guess a lot of that is obviously due to economic circumstances. Another piece that people don’t talk about as much as it affects us. There are a lot of metallurgical coke out there that’s been kind of an overhang situation, and I think that’s affecting our coking coal shipments. And that’s starting to work off. So I suppose if you’re looking for a green shoot, one of the green shoots might be that we see some – the coking – the coke market pricing starting to go up and maybe not quite the availability of metallurgical coke, and the number of blast furnaces, hot metal production actually is probably starting to increase too.

So – but it won’t happen immediately, we don’t think. So we’re still seeing lower demand than usual and a certain amount of deferrals or delays too. That’s something else that’s a piece of our businesses. Customer will still buy the same tons, but they’ll spread out the shipments just a little bit on us and that has a cumulative effect as well.

Lucas Pipes: Thank you, Dan. Are you seeing any movement on the supply side, either good or bad?

Dan Horn: Circumstance, we hear anecdotally of some mines that are idling, you probably read a couple of them in some of the media. So there seems to be some production coming off offline here in the U.S. And I guess another point that I need to weigh certainly on the high vol [ph] coals in the U.S. is the thermal market, as you know, has been really terrible for the last year or so. There was really no summer demand last year, no winter demand. So there has been a real overhang of thermal coal and a little bit of that thermal coal tends to creep into our high vol markets here too. That’s another area that hasn’t really been talked about a lot, but some of that coal actually ends up competing with the coal and coupling the prices down to. And I think some of those thermal operations we’ve heard anecdotally have been slowing down as well.

Lucas Pipes: Very helpful. Gentlemen, I really appreciate all the color. Thanks so much and continue. Best of luck.

Andy Eidson: Thanks, Lucas.

Operator: Our next question is from Nathan Martin with The Benchmark Company. Please proceed with your question.

Nathan Martin: Thanks, operator. Good morning, everyone.

Andy Eidson: Hey, Nate.

Nathan Martin: Maybe I’ll start with kind of a mixed question. I know domestic shipments seasonally light in the first quarter. But it looked like Aussie index export tons also kind of dip below your typical 1/3 or so, let’s call it, a net sales level and then the exports tied to the other pricing mechanisms were about 51% of sales looks like. So Dan, maybe great to get your thoughts behind kind of the mix drivers there? And then maybe how should we kind of think about that mix evolving with those three buckets here in the second quarter?

Andy Eidson: And Nate, I guess I’d take exceptions to light. I wouldn’t say it was light shipping schedule. I think we’re – there’s 4 million tons. But some – there were certainly some deferrals we saw coming out of Asia. So a lighter spot demand and a little bit of deferral. So that did skew the Aussie index-based volumes a bit downward, probably see that in Q2 as well before it picks up. India still looks real solid for us, but for the reasons that have been addressed, the elections coming up and things. There is – there is definitely both on term and spot business, a little bit less coming out of India. And then just generally Southeast Asia and China, a little slower than we had hoped as well for just overall economic reasons.

Nathan Martin: Okay. Got it. And just to clarify then. I was just saying light from an Aussie indexed percentage of sales, not 4 million, 4.1 million tons or light, so. That makes sense. I guess sticking with the demand thing; Pacific Basin had been kind of outpacing the Atlantic Basin for a few quarters. Now it sounds like maybe things a little bit weaker near-term in India, as you just mentioned. Maybe could I get your thoughts on Europe? I mean, how are things looking there? Maybe when do you think that market could start to improve?

Dan Horn: I think it’s safe to say Europe should have produced more hot metal in 2024 than they did in 2022 [ph]. That seems to be in the cards. Several of our customers have more blast furnaces operating. As I mentioned, there’s an overhang on coke. And with the low coke prices, there’s a fair amount of purchase going into Europe that probably won’t last. In my experience, that lasts for a while, and then when the cheap coke gets worked off, the cokeries begin producing more of their own, so I tend to think Europe will start to pick up. And that probably applies to South America as well.

Nathan Martin: Okay. Got it. Thanks for that color. And then maybe shifting over to DTA, I know some prepared remarks there, specifically some comments, I guess, on the Baltimore port outage related to transportation. But did you guys see any benefit maybe from the Baltimore port outage as far as tonnage necessarily needing to shift away and likely Hinton Roads taking the majority of that?

Dan Horn: I guess short answer would be no, Nate. We’re moving clicking along with our business as we had before. We got a few phone calls right after the bridge collapse, but it didn’t really translate into any spot business. We know that there’s a fair amount of Norfolk Southern base business that’s moved to Lamberts Point, that would have shipped out of Baltimore and that probably – we probably got back in the queue a little bit there. So that’s a minor effect, I think, on Alpha would be – there’s just – there’s a little more volume going out of Amber’s point than there was prior. But as far as DTA, I’d have to say we didn’t see any effects.