Ally Financial Inc. (NYSE:ALLY) Q1 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Russ Hutchinson: Great questions. Thanks, Ryan. Maybe I’ll just start on the 4% by end of 2025 in terms of NIM. As we said on the call and we said before, our 2024 guidance, 3.25 to 3.30 exit rate at 3.40 to 3.50 does not depend on rate cuts. So that guidance is intact, even if we are in an environment we’re at 5.50 for the remainder of this year. As you know, we took opportunities at the end of last year, effectively putting on additional hedges in order to take that risk right off the table for the course of 2024. Really, what we’re talking about is the timing within 2025 in terms of getting to the 4% margin. And as you can imagine, we run a range of rate scenarios and that certainly impacts that. I think based on kind of where we sit today our expectation is we get to the 4% NIM towards the end of 2025, but again, no impact on 2024 even if we’re flat through the course of this year.

On bank deposits and our deposit rates, you are correct. We took another 5 basis points of our savings product that’s $84 billion of deposits. We took that off this morning. That is just in response to the fact that we’ve seen strong deposit flows even coming through tax season now, we just – we feel great about where we are. We feel great about our bank franchise and about the – just the general level of engagement among our customers. I’d say at this point, sitting here in mid-April, it’s hard to say if that just reflects kind of lower rates and higher NIM going forward, or what we’ve done is we’ve really just kind of taken advantage of the opportunity and pulled it forward somewhat. But I’d say, just sitting right here, we feel great about the franchise and about the stickiness of our customers and about just the overall competitive environment for deposits.

Ryan Nash: Got it. Thanks for the color, Russ. And maybe a question on credit. So I think you noted delinquencies are near or at the peak on a seasonally adjusted basis. And you said that as we move through 2024, it should be more driven by recent vintages. So can you help us think about losses over the next few quarters? I think you noted that seasonally adjusted losses should be down later in the year. Can you maybe just put a finer point on that? When do we actually see the shift happen from underperforming on a seasonally adjusted basis to actually outperform it? Thank you.

Russ Hutchinson: Yes. It’s through the second half of this year. As you know, the auto asset is great and that you get a really good sense of how credit is developing over the first 18 months, right? That’s when our loans typically hit peak loss rate. The 2022 vintage was large. And as we’ve said before, it’s a vintage that’s been particularly impacted by the current environment, and it’s where we’re seeing losses that exceed our price expectations. And so as we get through the first half of this year, as we get through June, we should be through that, and we should see more of our losses actually driven by our 2023 and then increasingly by our 2024 vintages. As you know, we’ve ramped up the level of curtailment over the course of 2023. We’re seeing that benefit as we look at charge-offs and NCOs. And so our expectation is as that 2023 vintage becomes more dominant in terms of driving our losses, we’ll start to see that performance improve.

Ryan Nash: Thanks for the color, Russ.

Operator: Our next question will come from the line of Sanjay Sakhrani with KBW.

Sanjay Sakhrani: Thanks, good morning. Doug, you mentioned how different this time, the competitive dynamics are. I’m just curious – as we think about competitors possibly even considering reengaging with the market, like how easy would it be to come sort of disrupt what you guys have in terms of the situation right now? I’m just trying to think about where they stand in terms of dealer mind share. Obviously, the dynamics are so strong and put you in a really good position right now?

Doug Timmerman: Yes. I think the big part of our secret sauce, obviously, is decades of being very consistent and focused on things that dealer truly values. Application flow is the differentiator for us. We, as Russ indicated in his comments, we asked the dealer to send us all the applications. We’re willing to do the work, we don’t want to miss out an opportunity to help them sell another car and truck. We don’t want to miss an opportunity to capture the business. That resonates very well with the dealer. But the dealer is not going to give that opportunity to multiple providers, because of our relationship, we get that advantage. So that’s a big differentiator versus the competition.

Sanjay Sakhrani: Okay. And Russ, could you just talk about the loan sales? I just want to make sure I understand what happened this quarter versus what you might do in the future in terms of magnitude. Was there any gain on the sale of the loans? And maybe as we look ahead, should we expect the economic dynamics to sort of shift as you consider more of these types of things and sort of what kind of magnitude could these loan sales take? Thanks.

Russ Hutchinson: Yes. Look, I think it’s a fair question. We’ve been pretty opportunistic, and so we haven’t committed to any volume, and you’ll see that we’ll – we did loan sales in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of this year. We’re not going to do them every quarter. And we’re also looking at different ways of doing it. So for example, if we do a credit risk transfer transaction, it’s kind of a different impact in terms of the balance sheet and the P&L versus a loan sale. And so yes, this is going to be a little bit kind of lumpy. But we think this is an important tool for us to have as we look at managing capital and positioning ourselves to take advantage of the opportunities that are in the market today and also better serve our dealers.