Allegiant Travel Company (NASDAQ:ALGT) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Greg Anderson: Hey Scott. This is Greg real quick. I know we haven’t put out quarterly guide. So, we’re getting there, you can kind of back into it with the fourth quarter, but I think it might just be helpful to Maury’s comment about the third quarter being the weakest seasonally for us and what you saw in the third quarter airline EPS. I just want to say that fourth quarter airline EPS, the midpoint of our guide, we expect it to be stronger than the third quarter. Sometimes with the weighted average share counts and what’s happening on that side of the house and the lower overall share count that we have, kind of, highlights or pronounces the swings, but I just wanted to make sure that, that came across that we expect the fourth quarter airline EPS to be higher than the third quarter. And then sorry, BJ, I didn’t mean to jump in there on your 2024 costs.

Robert Neal: No, no that’s great. I mean we’re in the middle, Scott, of our budget process for 2024. So not ready to give a guide on CASMx for next year. And I’ll just say there are a lot of moving parts around delivery of the Boeing aircraft induction of those airplanes having crew members ready et cetera. But on kind of the capacity guidance that Drew put out there we would expect CASMx to be up a little bit next year. I don’t want to give a number yet.

Scott Group: Okay. Thank you, guys, appreciate the time.

Operator: Thank you. Our next question will be coming from Daniel McKenzie of [Technical difficulty] Global. Your line is open.

Unidentified Analyst: Oh, hey, thanks. Maury, welcome back here. A couple of questions. I guess the first is really a house cleaning question on Sunseeker. I know you don’t want to elaborate on 2024, but at least for the fourth quarter here, Does the full year EPS outlook include or exclude Sunseeker revenue? And then once it opens, can you share at least what you’re seeing today in terms of occupancy and booked room rates?

Maurice Gallagher: Hey, Dan. I’ll start with the first question. The outlook on Sunseeker for full year 2023 does include some revenue, but it’s very, very minimal, assuming that you’re only open for two weeks out of the year and you’re just kind of barely opening. You’re not expected to be at any kind of full run rate. So there’s some in there, but I wouldn’t run away with that for 2024, or 2023, I’m sorry.

Unidentified Analyst: Okay. All right. And then I guess in terms of the occupancy room rates I understand it’s in there. And Drew going back to your commentary of peak periods being scheduled to aircraft and crew constraints. I am looking at the back half of December and it looks like Allegiant flying is down 14% year-over-year. And so I guess a couple of questions tied to that. One is that accurate? And then secondly, is that tied to constraints? And I’m just wondering if we should model these constraints extending into peak March 2024 flying as well potentially.

Drew Wells: I think what you’re capturing there is some of the shift in the holiday timing as well. So the, let’s call it the third week of December with a pretty meaningful capacity in December of 22 as the travel started a bit sooner. That week comes down, I believe it’s about 22%, and then you get a little bit of growth into the more peak, call it last, I don’t know, 10 days or so of the month. So I think a competitor called this out as well. But there will be a downshift in the mid-part of December that’s kind of captured on the upside at the beginning of January. That I think explains most of what you’re seeing. I see.

Unidentified Analyst: Okay. Very good. Thanks for the time, you guys.

Drew Wells: Thanks, Dan.

Operator: Thank you. Our next question for today will be coming from Conor Cunningham of Melius Research. Your line is open.

Conor Cunningham: Hi, everyone. I thank you called me. As you think about load factor versus yields, you’re not trying to talk about pricing. Just like from a high level, as you think in the 2024, there seems to be a lot of discounting to fill seats. I’m just curious on what you’re viewing as the key priority in building revenue next year? Thank you.

Drew Wells: Yeah. I mean, at the end of the day, total revenue is the end game. I think you’ll see yields be more resilient in the peaks. And then us making sure that we’re capitalizing on $70 of total ancillary per passenger through the rest of the year, which is generally driven by load factor build as a general rule of thumb. So, I would kind of separate those two elements like that. But at the end of the day we need to make sure that we’re maximizing that ancillary component.

Conor Cunningham: Okay. And then on the 1,400 route comment that you had all the opportunities going forward I’m just — you’ve always had a lot of ad opportunities. So I’m just — your cost structure is obviously a lot higher. So I’m just trying to understand how that changes with a higher cost base. And then if you could just touch on where you sit with the pilots today and what’s going on there that would be helpful. That’s world help. Thank you very much.

Drew Wells: Sure. On 1,400 route I mean we’re still extremely confident in that. I think you have to strip it back a little bit into a fixed versus variable type of thought on that cost structure right in fuel we’ll see. I mean, that’s as variable as it gets. But for the rest of the cost structure it still supports all of these 1,400 routes as the fixed cost portion will kind of take care of itself as we get back to utilization we get back to growing again, but again that’s not how we think about new network deployment. It’s all on a variable basis.

Greg Anderson: Hey, Conor it’s Greg. I might try to hit on a couple of other parts there. On the cost to Drew’s point keep in mind, we’re accruing this year at least beginning in May accruing for increased labor agreement with our pilots. But increase in productivity of just a half hour in utilization per aircraft per day is worth like 0.5% of CASMx. So you have that that, I think over time I mentioned that we’ve invested in this infrastructure where the infrastructure has outpaced ASMs, but we’re going to get back there. And when we did the system cutovers everyone has their day job and these are massive system cutovers. And so the philosophy was measure twice cut once get it, done but it’s going to allow us to scale and grow more efficiently.

And then on the pilot side of the house just the trends are meaningfully improving. Just to put that into perspective in the first half of ’23 if you think about net new pilots we were flat whereas in the back half of 2023 we’ll have over 100 or we expect over 100 net new pilots. And that’s twofold. One attrition is meaningfully down. But two the classes are full and they remain full. And in fact applications over the past couple of months have more than doubled. And I think our the shout out to our Fios team and the focus that they have in their pathway programs and making sure that we’re identifying the pilots that want to be here at Allegiant. We have a unique quality of life offering overall which is that out-and-back model, but the most important thing that we need to do and I keep saying this is we’re working hard and we’re committed to getting a deal done for our pilots for our flight attendants and that’s a key focus for us and we’ll carry that in and trying to get that done as soon as possible.